经济衰退期间如何继续在新兴市场扩张

经济衰退期间如何继续在新兴市场扩张
SIS 国际研究公司总裁兼首席执行官 Ruth Stanat
2009 年 1 月 26 日

背景

自 20 世纪 90 年代初柏林墙倒塌以来，跨国公司纷纷涌入新兴市场，将其视为“最后的淘金热”。这曾经是、并且仍是未来几十年企业增长的平台。20 世纪 90 年代，跨国公司除了进入东欧和中欧经济体以及拉丁美洲，还进入了中国和其他亚洲市场。随着资本市场流动性和融资的持续增加，继续向新兴市场扩张成为大多数企业战略和扩张计划不可或缺的一部分。然而，在去年最近的金融和流动性危机中，游戏规则发生了变化。

当前的挑战

Companies are increasingly halting research concerning market opportunity expansion into these emerging markets in the past six months. As budgets and payrolls are getting slashed, expansion into emerging markets is being put on the back burner for most global firms. However, those firms that have the foresight to continue these research programs are prone to have a significant competitive advantage in the future when the economy rebounds.

The challenge that CEOs and senior management face today is how to continue these expansion programs in these emerging markets with limited budgets and the prospect of failure, given a perceived rise in risk.

解决方案

Market Assessment and Market Entry Research do not have to stop during these recessionary times. Rather than spending large sums of money on primary research to conduct market entry and market segmentation research, a modest research budget might be possible to still keep you in the global game. The following are some considerations for a limited market assessment budget in these lean times. These will not work for everyone, but they incorporate some of the concerns and risks that many companies now face.

第一阶段：市场情报

This phase will primarily use a secondary research methodology, which will offer a snapshot or a lay of the land picture of the market opportunity for a region of specific countries. The results of this phase will deliver a prioritization of the countries which offer “the low-hanging fruit” for exportation of products or for local production of products.

第二阶段：有限的定性研究或关键意见领袖访谈

第三阶段：对产品或服务的市场潜力进行定量评估

通过本地 CATI、面对面或在线访谈，第三阶段应量化您的产品或服务的销售潜力。为了降低研究成本，研究公司可以分析样本量。如果研究公司主张适当的样本量，既能确保研究质量，又能兼顾您的成本问题，您仍然可以在这些新兴国家实施扩张和市场进入计划。

当前新兴经济体流动性不足的问题

这是在新兴市场继续扩张的一大障碍。另一方面，流动性的缺乏主要存在于这些国家。如果你的公司在这些新兴市场拥有流动性，那么你就在这些新兴市场拥有战略优势。

Remember in these markets that a little goes a long way. Countries like Mexico hardly forget those firms that entered Mexico before the Peso crisis in the early 1990s and made a swift “exit” during the peso crisis. Clearly, they were not welcome back with open arms after the crisis was over. In addition, those firms that stayed in South Africa during the Apartheid rule, reaped the benefits of the economy after the exit of this political regime. During this economic downturn, if companies can continue to remain in these emerging economies, they are likely to be “ahead of the game” when the recession ends. Indeed, difficulties abound with trying to “jumpstart” your re-entry at a later point in time.

总结/结论

以下是过去几年中在新兴市场推出市场评估项目的跨国公司需要考虑的事项：

1. 考虑继续在这些经济体开展业务——哪怕只是“维持水平”
2. Consider continuing your research programs with cost-effective research budgets
3. 考虑让当地政府和当地合作伙伴知道，你会“长期”留在他们的市场
4. 考虑继续进行市场进入计划，并适度投放广告，以向当地市场保证你“没有退出市场”
5.考虑继续监控您的竞争对手的活动，因为他们可能会在经济衰退时期“投入比您更多的资金”，以获得新兴市场的市场份额。