了解中国影子银行体系

露丝-斯坦纳特

了解中国影子银行体系

SIS 国际市场研究与战略

随着中国经济增速放缓至1999年以来的最低水平,中国的影子银行体系,即不受监管机构控制的非正式融资市场,最近受到了严格审查。

如果经济增长继续放缓,中国影子银行体系的贷款突然违约可能威胁中国银行业,并最终危及整个经济领域。

The unregulated and decentralized interconnected underground economy that comprises the shadow banking system have proven difficult for foreign analysts and observers to pin down. The sheer size of the system indicates that it is interconnected with China’s economy. Shadow banks issue an estimated 14.5 trillion renminbi in loans, roughly 25% of all the loans made in China by the traditional banking institutions.

The shadow banking system is largely composed of investment trusts, pawn shops, guarantors, underground banks, and wealth management products. Investment trusts are companies that manage investors’ money and use it to finance business projects or property loans. In 2011, the investment trust industry was handling 4.8 million renminbi. The total lack of transparency in the investment trust industry–only 10 of the 62 investment trusts in China disclose investment returns–makes it harder to gauge if the highly leverage trusts are facing systemic collapse.

当铺

Pawnshops are prevalent in China, with over 4,000 operating across the country. Pawnshops have become a problem because they accept any sort of collateral for their short-term loans including financial securities like stocks and bonds, and even real estate property. If China’s property market deteriorates, pawnshops will be left with defaulted loans that are backed by collateral that have less value on the market.

担保人

顾名思义,担保人为高风险借款人的贷款提供担保。担保人赚取的利息不像当铺那么多,他们可能会采取非法手段来增加回报。担保人可能会拿出一部分担保贷款,再贷回影子银行系统。如果影子贷款违约,投资者最终一无所有的可能性就会增加。

地下钱庄

地下钱庄在中国蓬勃发展。银行发行的信用证属于表外工具,不计入该行业的资产负债表杠杆率。企业可以使用同一抵押品从不同的银行获得多笔贷款,因此很难确定这些银行的杠杆率到底有多高。

政府行动

理财产品首当其冲地成为影子银行体系批评的焦点,中国银行董事长肖钢在《中国经济周刊》的一篇评论文章中称,理财产品是庞氏骗局。 中国日报 newspaper.  Wealth management products fund projects such as property development or infrastructure that cannot access funds through normal loan channels. Investors may not have any idea about what the investment is or what kind of returns they can generate. The products are riskier than deposits, but investors believe that banks back them as they are marketed in most bank branches. If the products default, banks’ reputations will take a hit.

中国的影子银行体系非常复杂,由于这些体系相互交织,给传统银行体系带来巨大风险。鉴于影子银行体系的规模和在经济中的重要地位,如果影子银行体系崩溃,中国可能面临经济动荡。

 

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