委内瑞拉市场研究

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查韦斯的余波

Since the death of charismatic United Socialist Party leader Hugo Chavez in 2013, Venezuela has struggled during the presidential tenure of his hand-picked successor, Nicolás Maduro. With a one-product economy based almost entirely on oil production, the financial fortunes and the quality of life for many in Venezuela have plummeted in direct relationship to world oil prices. Already in decline during Chavez’s waning years in office, under Maduro the decline has devolved into an outright collapse.

如今，政府无法进口甚至提供基本产品。人们排着长队等待领取家庭用品、药品和食物，耗时数小时。随着情况持续恶化，抗议、抢劫和暴力事件变得越来越普遍。马杜罗将短缺归咎于囤积和走私，但许多人认为政府管理不善才是原因。国家工业也受到冲击，生产水平已跌至谷底。与此同时，委内瑞拉的信用评级已跌至垃圾级。

Price controls are in effect to protect consumers from runaway inflation and currency has been shockingly devalued. Exports are shutting down, and companies continue to leave the country or close down. Inflation has risen into triple-digit territory – the highest in the world – and salaries are far from keeping pace. Crime is on the upswing in Caracas and to a greater degree in the interior of the country.

很难想象，就在十年前，委内瑞拉经历了现代史上最大的商品繁荣之一，石油总收入估计接近 5000 亿美元，与科威特相当。然而，经济管理不善和世界石油价格下跌使该国陷入混乱，几乎没有任何立即缓解的希望。社会动荡普遍存在，人们普遍认为委内瑞拉已经到了崩溃的边缘。到目前为止，政府能够避免动乱，但很可能会发生改组。马杜罗会成为最后一位查韦斯主义领导人吗？时间会告诉我们答案。与此同时，他正在采取更独裁、更强硬的立场。

“由于担心公众骚乱升级为更严重的问题，政府现已部署军队来控制该国半空的商店中不满的购物者排队。它还引入了定量配给制度，限制购物者每周只能在政府控制的商店购物两天。 彭博 cynically put it, “Venezuela reduces lines by trimming shoppers, not shortages.”.1

本质上，委内瑞拉正在发生的灾难被视为如何 不是 在全球资本主义时代管理经济。毫无疑问，这是一种失败的经济模式。目前，美元在黑市上的价值是交易所价值的一百倍。人们认为委内瑞拉在某个时候违约的可能性很大。由于油价低于每桶 $50，该国不断亏损。据估计，他们每月损失 $2B 的储备。 

油价上涨能解决委内瑞拉的问题吗？

World oil prices historically fluctuate. While they are presently at rock bottom, most industry prognosticators feel that prices will inevitably rise once again. Unfortunately for big oil-producing nations such as Venezuela, just when this might occur is uncertain. Certainly, a normalizing of oil prices would help to keep Venezuela solvent and operative. At $70-$80-a-barrel, it could sustain itself and feed its people. Concurrently, if the people do better, the Chavista government stands a far better chance of enduring.

据最近报道 美国之音, “委内瑞拉是受油价下跌影响最严重的石油输出国组织成员国之一。委内瑞拉需要欧佩克削减供应以支撑油价，但这未能改变沙特阿拉伯及其海湾欧佩克盟友的立场，后者专注于保护市场份额。”2 由于缺乏沙特阿拉伯、欧佩克、俄罗斯和其他石油资源丰富的国家承诺减产，委内瑞拉当前的财务前景十分严峻。

Of course, other problems existed before the bottom fell out of the oil market. Even if and when oil prices rise, Venezuela will have to deal with its broken system, price controls, gas subsidies, rationing, and inadequate food supplies. Paying off creditors won’t help a hungry populace. An influx of cash also won’t restore political freedoms. Chávez and Maduro dealt with a lot of problems by throwing money at them. With the money gone, that’s no longer possible. At best, a new infusion of oil money might help them to kick the can down the road a bit further, but it’s no magic bullet.

委内瑞拉：民主与否？

Despite all of the accusations leveled against it, the Chavista government of Venezuela built its legitimacy on fair electoral processes and relatively clean elections. Today, however, the playing field is uneven. The government controls all of the institutions and the people are unable to express their choices freely.  根据 每日野兽委内瑞拉国民议会批准 总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗（最近的请求）自 2013 年上任以来第二次以法令施政。该裁决赋予总统行政权力之外的特殊扩大权力。马杜罗称这是打击帝国主义的推动力。”

剩下的就是 管理 民主。马杜罗的反对派可能会称之为独裁。由于政府控制着大部分媒体，他们能够利用它来拉票。政府雇员被要求参加亲政府的抗议活动。反对派候选人甚至被禁止竞选公职，这让人权组织感到懊恼。马杜罗遭受了额外的困扰，因为他显然缺乏乌戈·查韦斯所拥有并充分利用的魅力。查韦斯主义者的一个救命稻草是反对派无法团结起来并克服其内部斗争的倾向。他们可能会在即将到来的议会选举中失败，因为他们无法团结起来。

评价委内瑞拉的民主制度

Venezuela has a long history of crony interests exploiting situations for their own gain. Even Chavez was seen as channeling the hatred of older political factions to obtain power. The Venezuelan constitution has been rewritten numerous times for political expediency. The State Assembly was often used as a rubber stamp to enforce Chávez’s power.  政府过去和现在都经常使用恐吓手段来压制反对派领导人，比如莱奥波尔多·洛佩斯，他目前因煽动反对马杜罗政权的骚乱和暴力而被监禁。

腐败现象十分严重，军方似乎也参与其中，长期担任军官的 Diostado Cavelo 与马杜罗关系密切，许多人认为他在暗中“操纵局势”。Cavelo 目前正在接受调查，罪名是涉嫌参与贩毒集团和向美国运送可卡因。与许多国家常见的三权分立不同，委内瑞拉的每个人都听从行政部门的命令。

Is Chavez Still A Hero to The Poor?

Though it has been some time now since the passing of Hugo Chavez, his legacy and legend still live in Venezuela. This is especially true among the nation’s poor and among Chavista leaders. “Since Chavez’s death after a battle with an undisclosed cancer in 2013, the government and the PSUV party have made great efforts to present him as a national hero and capitalize his legacy. President Nicolás Maduro mentions Chávez in almost every speech, urging people to follow his example.”4  It’s true that no one has benefitted quite as much from attaching himself to Chavez’s enduring popularity as Maduro. Since his Chavez-endorsed election, there have been chronic shortages, sporadic violence, inflation, and accusations of impropriety on many levels, but past association with Chavez allowed Maduro to cling to

power. However, when people can’t eat and have no money, their patience can begin to erode. Even Maduro is playing the “Chavez card” less and less, as it is a currency that no longer guarantees reverence or votes at election time. Many feel the true revolution died along with Chavez. Perhaps not even another compelling charismatic could revive it. From colorful murals on building exteriors to stories that still circulate among the faithful, Chavez image and his savior-status among the poor still survives, due to his personal magnetism, the work he did for the disadvantaged, and the way he stood up to and defied the establishment. The Oligopoly that he railed against did in fact exist, . It was a system that deeply entrenched the powers of a small group of the privileged elite. Today, Maduro can still blame Venezuela’s problems on these entitled few. It is this class-driven cleavage that makes governing extremely difficult. In truth, unless oil prices rebound and reverses the country’s economic fortunes, these lingering echoes of Chavista glory may fade forever.

玻利瓦尔革命的意义

玻利瓦尔革命导致了 20 年内巨大的财富再分配^第世纪南美，导致委内瑞拉在过去 16 年中发生了彻底的转变。石油繁荣使乌戈·查韦斯得以将大量资金用于慷慨的社会计划。如今，这些计划大部分都失败了。尽管如此，穷人仍然支持查韦斯政府，他们认为在右倾统治下情况会更糟。许多人宁愿忍受长队和廉价商品，也不愿支持他们认为会进一步抬高物价的反对派。

“Prior to its current domestic woes, Venezuela worked hard and often succeeded in establishing itself as a major alternative influence in Latin America, as a kind of “Bolivarian” power. Now, Venezuela must confront the fact that the conditions once anchoring its global aspirations – like excessive revenues generated by the petrostate – have evaporated. Venezuela’s capabilities for international power projection are constrained by domestic unrest, 国际储备枯竭, 通货膨胀猖獗、低油价以及 石油产量低迷，使得国际玻利瓦尔计划的延续前景愈发黯淡。”12

从本质上讲，查韦斯一手改变了委内瑞拉人的心态。他赋予穷人权力，引导他们参与政治进程。马杜罗可能不受欢迎，但革命的心跳仍然跳动在许多委内瑞拉人的心中。他们没有忘记美好的时光。反对派领导人做出民粹主义承诺，试图吸引查韦斯的选民，但人民的不信任感很强。革命的根源在于结束经济不平等，但腐败扼杀了这一意图。对于国际投资者来说，对查韦斯的挥之不去的感情被视为一种威胁。对其他人来说，这是一个希望的梦想，无论它多么边缘化，它都会继续存在。

公民权利、人权和穷人的生活条件……

In Venezuela today, there is growing discontent and repression. There are long lines with hundreds of people waiting for subsidized food and supplies. Among the ranks of the waiting there is hatred, aggression and fear. The people, while not starving, are surely struggling and crime is escalating to the point where the people no longer feel safe. The police who might protect the citizenry are corrupt. It is estimated that of all the homicides committed in Venezuela (and it has one of the highest murder rates in the world) only 3% of perpetrators are ever prosecuted. The country’s prisons are among the world’s worst according to the U.N. At the root of this crime-wave is social inequality and the great and widening gulf between the haves and the have-nots that dates back over 100 years. 

乌戈·查韦斯的社会主义试图解决这种不平等，但最终没有成功。马杜罗政府似乎已经失去了维持先前民粹主义政策的能力。由此产生的绝望表现为犯罪、走私、黑市交易的蓬勃发展，以及由于最终徒劳无功而导致人们工作积极性的降低。  Those who managed to escape poverty during Chavez’ glory years now find themselves slipping back into it. Segregation is evident and the pall of depression is palpable in the air. In addition, Venezuela is suffering from acute 人才外流或者，医生、工程师、律师和其他专业人士大批离开该国，寻找一个波动较小的地方开展业务。

求职者以及投票支持或反对他们的人都发现委内瑞拉是一个越来越不利于政治的地方。人权观察美洲区主任 Jose Miguel Vivanco 表示：“委内瑞拉政府利用司法系统作为幌子，但现实是委内瑞拉法官和检察官已经成为顺从的士兵。委内瑞拉当局经常滥用权力限制言论自由，破坏公开、民主的辩论，而这对于 12 月即将举行的立法选举来说尤其重要。”5 

Various political leaders have been jailed, driven from the country, or sued. Of course, jailing political prisoners on trumped-up charges is a classic totalitarian approach. Intimidation is also an effective method of repression, and it’s often done in such a way that the government can wash its hands of any implications of wrongdoing. Chavista thugs and motorcycle gangs have been known to terrorize journalists under the guise of being independent citizens. Even Twitter users on social media have been jailed for inflammatory comments concerning Maduro, instilling fear in not only journalists, but voters as well. Protests are met with harsh police crackdowns and the journalists who cover them routinely have their cameras confiscated or worse. It’s estimated that 70-80 press members are presently imprisoned in Venezuela. Even the mayor of Caracas is under house arrest.

新兴领导人和老牌政治人物

在委内瑞拉，也许没有哪起政治逮捕事件比反对党领袖被捕更引人注目。 莱奥波尔多·洛佩斯。 这 纽约时报 声明称，“洛佩斯先生曾是哈佛大学毕业生，曾担任加拉加斯市的市长，对他的指控十分恶劣。马杜罗先生于 2014 年 2 月下令逮捕他，指控他在反政府示威活动蔓延时煽动暴力。政府在其刑事起诉书中荒谬地声称洛佩斯先生通过潜意识信息煽动委内瑞拉人使用暴力。”6 如今，洛佩兹是这栋关押他的大楼里唯一的囚犯，他的牢房与自由之间有六道锁着的门。当然，如果马杜罗不认为他是个威胁，他是不会被关进监狱的。

Overall, many feel there is a dearth of leadership in Venezuela. On the Chavista side, Chavez was able to nurture a cult of personality, but wherever this occurs, a charismatic tends to be surrounded by mediocrity. Case in point,  尼古拉斯·马杜罗。他缺乏查韦斯的个性，在民众中没有前任那样的受欢迎程度。他继承了一个经济模式破产的国家的毒酒杯。想象一下，管理一个通货膨胀率接近 100% 的地方，人们在身份证计划下排队数小时领取微薄的口粮，而这个计划被黑帮利用，变成了暴徒式的食物运送。 

迪奥斯达多·卡贝洛国会主席，  是一个狡猾而冷酷的执法者，但他没有民众支持。他应该是任何军政府或军事接管的合理领导者。  卡贝洛能够激励、鼓舞并获取反对派中较为激进分子的忠诚，但由于他激进的自由主义经济政策和特权背景，他无法得到查韦斯主义支持者的支持。

反对党总统候选人， 恩里克·卡普里莱斯, is a major player with good support, but he may be seen among voters as a has-been. He has had chances in the past as an opposition leader to create change, so it is hard to imagine him creating much of a buzz. Chavista defector and Lara state Governor 亨利·法尔孔 是一位善于把握中间立场的温和派，行事低调，被认为是一匹值得关注的黑马。

据 Fox News.com 报道，“委内瑞拉选举官员拒绝了高调的反对派领袖 玛丽亚·科里娜·马查多试图登记为即将举行的国会选举的候选人。马查多于周一 (2015 年 9 月 28 日) 宣布，全国选举委员会已拒绝了她登记参加 12 月 6 日选举的申请。马查多称拒绝她的候选资格是对她权利的严重侵犯。”7

即将举行的选举：预测和可能的结果

委内瑞拉 2015 年 12 月的议会选举被一些人视为民主派人士通过投票箱表达意愿、改善国家状况的最后希望。此后，一切将变得扑朔迷离。大多数人认为反对派将取得良好表现，这是查韦斯主义多年来在选举中占据主导地位后的一个大新闻。然而，反对派并不特别团结，因此，当烟雾散去时，可能不会出现一个单一的领袖人物。马杜罗总统的执政能力将取决于选举结果。作为国民议会议长，迪奥斯达多·卡贝略将努力利用反对派所能召集的任何势头。  一些人预测反对党将取得压倒性胜利，因此有人质疑政府是否会 允许 发生这样的事。正如前面提到的，  反对派人物  Leopoldo Lopez 和 Maria Corina Machado 已被监禁和/或  被禁止参加选举。 

Another government advantage is near outright ownership of the media airwaves. The opposition candidates, once they declare, are immediately intimidated by the government and not allowed to have adequate airtime. For the most part they are denigrated, criticized, and are said to be fomenting violence and unrest. Of course, if the Chavistas lose, they won’t control all of the government anymore. In that event, they may attempt to enact laws that limit congressional power. Regardless of the outcome,  “According to a leading Venezuelan polling organization, Datanálisis, 84 percent of the population believes that the country is on the wrong path and only 13 percent view Venezuela’s situation positively.”8

新闻自由？信息质量？

自从 Nicolás Maduro assumed power in Venezuela, journalistic opinion and information are allowed much less space in available publications. Local news outlets have been bought out by government supporters or have been driven out of business altogether, their resources often drained by ongoing court cases. In many instances they are refused permission to advertise or broadcast. Even worse, journalists are often jailed or fined by a wary government intent on neutralizing negative reports on its conduct and policies. Freedom of the press is not altogether forbidden as it is in North Korea, but those who do publish anti-government content are almost sure to not be publishing much longer.

为了规避政府为压制新闻自由而采取的措施，许多记者开始利用互联网、博客和通过外国媒体发表文章。然而，马杜罗政权开始对社交媒体言论采取行动，监禁了六名发表负面政府言论的人士。尽管发表自由言论存在危险和障碍，但大部分新闻界仍然存在独立和抵抗。艰难的经济条件导致许多记者离开该国，留下外国记者。

The government is unable to crack down on foreign journalists because of the repercussions it would have internationally. No new reporters are coming in, but those already there have been allowed to stay. Ultimately, the government aims to negate local press outlets and mute the foreign journalists with a war of attrition. Social media is a helpful alternative to traditional delivery mediums, but money, resources, and talent are necessary for the production of substantial, informative reporting.

离开委内瑞拉——民族主义的代价

“In 2007, the Bolivarian government issued a law-decree nationalizing all remaining oil production sites under foreign control and mandating that all oil extraction in Venezuela be undertaken within the framework of joint ventures, in which the state oil company PDVSA retains the majority stake. This move sparked a wave of lawsuits by foreign trans-nationals in international arbitration bodies demanding compensation for expropriated assets. In response, Venezuela withdrew from the ICSID in 2012, citing institutional bias in favor of transnational corporations on the part of the Washington-based body. “13

Where once Venezuela was home to many large multi-national firms, today only a handful remain. It’s difficult to make a profit because labor costs and the prices of goods are predetermined.

大型公司仍在坚持，期待未来经济形势好转，而小型公司则没有时间等待那么长时间。大型石油公司在财务上承受着巨大损失，但未来利润的潜力大到不容忽视。

国际投资争端解决中心 (ICSID) 有许多未决案件，涉及委内瑞拉政府在国有化过程中没收公司的指控。埃克森美孚最近在 2014 年赢得了 $1.6B 的案件，据说该国欠航空公司数十亿美元的债务至今仍未偿还。总体而言，委内瑞拉已成为国际石油利益集团和大型公司开展商业活动的困难之地。对于那些已经离开的人来说，除非出现一个更包容的新政府，否则他们不太可能回来。

委内瑞拉对全球石油经济的重要性

一时间，乌戈·查韦斯领导的委内瑞拉成为了全世界渴望从美国获得更大独立、控制自身资源的国家的灯塔。  He was seen as that rare individual with the courage to stand up to the U.S. in defiance, and as a central figurehead in a worldwide alliance of left-leaning, socialistic powers. After world oil prices plummeted, the bottom fell out of Chavez’s plans and his mystique was weakened.  继任者尼古拉斯·马杜罗发表了激烈的演讲，但影响力不大。 加勒比石油组织 为委内瑞拉和加勒比国家提供石油的委内瑞拉在资金停止流动后失去了支持。如今，在世界舞台上，只有少数国家愿意为委内瑞拉挺身而出。

No doubt, Venezuela can still be a major provider of oil. They have the largest reserves in the world, but theirs is a viscous, hard-to-process type of petroleum product that is expensive to refine. With current prices at a nadir, Venezuela’s role as an oil producer has diminished, and its position as a lion of socialism has been undermined, as well. Globally, they are still a top ten producer of oil and they are important in that regard. Presently, there is a glut of oil on the global market, but this will not always be so. In the long-term, the world will need Venezuela’s vast reserves to supply an unquenchable need for petroleum.

瑞银策略师朱利叶斯·沃克总结道：“委内瑞拉对全球石油市场仍然很重要。任何生产中断都会导致价格大幅上涨。由于政治动荡而导致的任何生产停工几乎肯定会导致价格大幅上涨，而总产量短缺将严重影响全球石油市场。”9

石油是唯一答案吗？

除了石油，委内瑞拉还拥有丰富的自然资源，包括铁矿石、铝、黄金、钻石和天然气。委内瑞拉过去曾尝试过多元化，但最终石油主导了 20^第 世纪甚至更久以后。到目前为止，石油开采成本如此低廉，以至于采取其他行动的必要性几乎毫无意义。然而，巨大的潜力仍然存在。让当今的委内瑞拉设置前进的障碍吧，即阻碍多元化努力的资本和产权问题。

委内瑞拉财政部长胡里奥·索萨·罗德里格斯 (Julio Sosa Rodriguez) 最近在加拉加斯接受采访时很好地总结了这一情况，他说：“对于我们这一代人来说，这是我们第一次看到石油占国家预算的一半以下。过去 20 年最愚蠢的事情就是没有实现经济多元化。”10         如果委内瑞拉经济稳定下来，可能需要大量外国投资来投资和帮助该国经济发展。如果允许这些投资实现并取得成果，许多领域都会存在机遇。

Venezuela’s Relationship with Other Latin American Governments

The left-wing governments of Ecuador, Cuba, Argentina, and Bolivia have historically had alliances with Venezuela. These affiliations are based more upon ideology than on copying Venezuela as an economic model. Latin American ties were especially strong when Chavez ruled and money and oil were flowing. However, relationships have deteriorated noticeably under the Maduro regime.

Brazil pretends to have decent relations with Venezuela, but there is no real respect for Maduro that isn’t based on fear of his power and of losing access to Venezuela’s ready supply of oil. After all, Venezuela used to give money to their allies, but in light of its current economic woes, those days are gone. Some Caribbean nations such as Barbados rely on Venezuela for oil, so they are reticent to speak out against Maduro in any meaningful way.

While the embattled leader is struggling to hold together his frayed alliances, human rights groups are leaning hard on Latin American countries to hold the Venezuelan government accountable for its many transgressions against its political prisoners. Columbia has raised its voice to the issue, but it shares a border with Venezuela and isn’t too anxious to pick a fight. Cuba has long shared left-leaning proclivities with Venezuela, but their recent thawing of relations with the U.S. has placed Maduro in an awkward position given the vitriol and disdain he regularly aims at Washington and Obama.

那么俄罗斯和中国怎么样？

If Venezuela is a strong ally of Russia and China, the relationship is mostly superficial. Venezuela has offered the two world powers a place to sell their products on preferential terms. The loans they have given are typically based on contractual obligations for the selling of Russian and Chinese products. When times were better, sales were good and everyone was happy, but today the business is winding down.  Russia claims continued alliance, but they have trouble dealing with of their own. It is China that has continued to lend to Venezuela, even when getting paid back for these loans seems unlikely.

据《经济学人》报道，“尼古拉斯·马杜罗总统在 9 月 1 日播出的每周电视节目中宣布了一笔来自中国的 14 亿美元新贷款。在长达两小时的节目中（《与马杜罗联系》、《En contacto con Maduro》），他简要宣布了该协议已经签署，然后镜头切换到行进中的中国士兵和他与中国政要一起打鼓的片段。……由于这笔贷款将以石油偿还，因此无需得到委内瑞拉议会的批准（因为它不会正式算作债务）。”11 

China’s place at the bargaining table is solid and they are not giving the money away for free. The strings are inevitably tied to the provision of a steady supply of oil in the future. Like Russia, China is dealing with its own economic turndown. Venezuela is located far away from China and the cost of refining the plentiful but viscous oil supply will be very expensive. The Chinese have made similar deals in Africa, leveraging present-day loans for long-term provisions of much-needed oil.

国际盟友和对手

委内瑞拉与其他国家之间的同盟和友谊几乎总是建立在石油、金钱和左翼政治的基础上。对于伊朗、俄罗斯、叙利亚和中国来说，任何联系都是纯粹的金钱关系。意识形态并不是主要考虑因素。此外，任何民主国家几乎都肯定是委内瑞拉政府的反对者。

古巴是委内瑞拉长期以来的意识形态盟友。然而，古巴最近与美国关系的升温给马杜罗政府带来了麻烦。委内瑞拉和古巴多年来一直并肩站在一起，谴责美国的邪恶。古巴的 180 度大转变不仅让马杜罗感到困惑，也让他的合法性受到质疑。

Brazil’s friendship with Venezuela is of great importance to the Maduro government as Brazil is in good economic shape. Elsewhere, Algeria, Palestine, and the Assad regime in Syria have shown an alliance to the Venezuelan government. Some believe that Maduro’s regime has been somehow complicit in helping Iran to conceal its ongoing nuclear development program.

至于敌人，毫无疑问，美国是头号敌人。马杜罗一直声称美国一直试图暗杀他，甚至将副总统乔·拜登也牵连其中。奥巴马总统竭尽全力不让委内瑞拉有理由将美国贴上帝国主义的标签，并试图缓和与马杜罗政权的关系。在其他方面，西班牙在意识形态上与委内瑞拉持反对态度，而哥伦比亚无疑激起了马杜罗的愤怒。 

与美国进行新的对话？

对于尼古拉斯·马杜罗来说，与美国政府的任何谈判充其量都是一个冒险的提议。毕竟，他和他的前任、已故的乌戈·查韦斯多年来一直在诋毁和散布反资本主义的恶毒言论，攻击他们北方的邻国。话虽如此，两国之间的近期谈判确实一直在进行。正如路透社最近报道的那样……

“美国和 委内瑞拉 据美国政府一位高级官员称，两国已开始进行多年来最广泛的对话，以试图改善双方紧张的关系。这种悄无声息的外交关系此前从未被报道过，这表明美国与共产主义古巴的缓和可能有助于重塑另一个陷入困境的拉美关系。这位直接了解高层会谈情况的官员警告说，这一进程尚处于早期阶段。拉美最强烈反对华盛顿的政府和美国主要石油供应国努力改善关系之际，总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗正努力应对衰落的国家主导型经济，而亲密盟友古巴与美国关系升温，使该国更加孤立。14

For the U.S, having a failed state in Venezuela is not a good thing. It creates increased security issues and opens the door to escalation in drug trafficking activities. The DEA has been investigating high-ranking Venezuelan officials for believed involvement in drug-related criminality. To mollify the U.S., some arrests have been made in relation to the investigations. One possible scenario sees the U.S. providing financial aid to Venezuela, though some doubt this will happen. In the pursuit of U.S. dollars, it’s reported that the Venezuelan Head of the Assemblage, Diosdado Cabello recently met in Haiti with U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Shannon. In the meantime, Maduro continues to vent on TV against the U.S., blaming it for most of Venezuela’s ills.

灾难即将来临？

Despite loans from China to keep it economically solvent and ongoing relations with the U.S. portending possible relief for Venezuelans, day-to-day life is still miserable for millions. Long lines of poor people stand in line for food and supplies. Constant shortages provide unending aggravation. Crime threatens the very lives of a vulnerable population. Many say that short of a quick and demonstrative intervention of some type, Venezuela may soon be heading off the cliff. This makes the coming elections even more important. With external debts mounting and oil prices remaining low month after month, conditions are perfect for a cataclysm of the highest order.

巴克莱银行称，“委内瑞拉正遭受其历史上最严重的经济危机，预计今年经济产出将萎缩 9.1%。2014 年至 2016 年期间，经济萎缩幅度可能达到 16.5%，而同期通胀率将超过 1,000%。”15

The middle-class continues to protest, but unless they are joined by the poor, creating numbers too big to be ignored, little will change. True, petrol bombs, thrown stones, unrest, and violence can lead to an awareness that might affect real change, but without organization and leadership, such protests stand little chance of uniting huge amounts of people and of being effective. With Venezuelan citizens so hungry and angry, it’s not hard to see why Chavez-worship is on the wane. An epochal event might be necessary to usher in a new era for the nation and to reinvigorate its beleaguered markets.

在长期…

Most experts agree that things will get worse in Venezuela before they get better. Even if oil prices rise, the best that might be expected is a few more years of “kicking the can down the road.” The country’s debts are astronomical. There isn’t enough food. Problems are myriad to the point that it may take decades for Venezuela to sift through the wreckage wrought by Chavez’s experiment, and by the fickle

化石燃料市场的性质。预计查韦斯主义的垮台是否会很快得到解决，还是需要经过漫长而痛苦的斗争才能走出黑暗，这还有待观察。无论解决方案是什么，它都必须涉及人民的授权，而不是老寡头的意志。

Will a moderate such as Capriles provide the bridge to unite right and left in Venezuela? Can Chinese loans stave off default? China may well be tiring of waiting for its return on investment to pay dividends. On the upside, Venezuela is sitting on a sea of oil, and there is no doubt that eventually, the world will need it. Oil prices are bound to rise and when that happens, Venezuela will be well-positioned to reap the benefits. Investors, meanwhile, are in a wait-and-see mode.

摘自 LFPress.com；“经济将继续遭受损失，政府也没有政治意愿采取强有力的措施应对快速上升的通货膨胀和不断恶化的财政环境。  事实上，目前公众的不满情绪使得马杜罗更不可能实施痛苦的改革，而这些改革可能会导致抗议活动再次爆发。这意味着我们将在未来看到更多轮的社会不满情绪。”16

前进的方向是什么？

As improbable as it sounds, many feel the best course of action for Venezuela to take regarding its future would be to form a transitional government with representation from all sides, in the interest of national solidarity. This would include the opposition, the Chavista government, and the military. Some feel that painful austerity measures presented by a unified front are needed in order to stabilize the economy. The IMF could provide emergency funding. The people will decide who they want to lead through fair elections monitored by the international community. The ultimate goal would be to achieve some type of peaceful democratic transition.

有人建议的其他补救措施包括降低当前汇率，以激励企业返回委内瑞拉。从石油行业和国际投资的角度来看，反对派控制将是一种进步，因为人们对马杜罗及其政策存在很大的不信任。目前，马杜罗政府很难修复关系，因为经济已经变得衰败。话虽如此，  尽管失败了，但许多人仍然支持查韦斯主义并怀有重振革命的希望。

Maduro still has four years left to rule, but it’s hard to imagine him surviving that long as badly as things have been. Should the urban poor mobilize and show their extreme discontent in the streets, Maduro’s tenure could be shortened. In an interesting article in the Huffington Post recently, this assessment was published …

“一个可行的解决方案是找到一位新的领导人，他可能来自佩塔雷、圣阿古斯丁或 23 de Enero 的贫民窟；他能够吸引许多不满意的人 查韦斯主义者 他们不信任当前的反对派领导人。这种人物的出现可能代表了 查韦斯主义者 和反对派，很可能预示着委内瑞拉政治危机的转折点。”17

委内瑞拉人真正想要什么

Most experts feel that the wants of the Venezuelan people are actually not so complex or impossible to satisfy. Like everyone, they wish for the basics; food, shelter, and clothing. They want to be able to eat and have a minimal amount of purchasing power. As one insider put it, “they want a peaceful nation with plenty to eat, drink, decent beaches, and they will be happy.” Venezuelans also want to be heard, to have a voice, a vote, and honest representation. In addition, they insist on a decent education for their children.

事实上，中产阶级正在撤离家园，因为没有机会发迹。穷人真的不抱多大希望，他们现在的苦难会得到缓解。不幸的是，委内瑞拉是一个两极分化的国家。反对派和查韦斯主义者的支持者的需求和愿望大相径庭。许多人热切希望看到查韦斯主义政策的终结，而穷人和被剥夺权利的人则希望继续推行社会支出和左倾政策。

此外，人们希望在街上和家里感到安全。他们害怕暴力犯罪不断升级。许多人也饿了，他们厌倦了排队等待食物和补给。他们的愤怒正在增长。这是一个点燃的导火索，越来越接近灾难性的爆炸。可能以何种形式爆发尚不清楚。这场爆炸能否在为时已晚之前迅速化解，还有待观察。委内瑞拉及其人民的未来充满希望。这是 展示 这是非常不稳定且有问题的。

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