ワクチン市場調査

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ワクチン接種は免疫システムを強化するプロセスです。免疫システムが病気やウイルスが体内に侵入するのを阻止できるようにします。注射はワクチンを体内に取り込む通常の方法です。一部のワクチンは経口で、他のワクチンは鼻から摂取します。医療従事者が鼻からワクチンを投与すると、体はすぐに反応するため、一部の医療従事者はこれを最良の方法と考えています。他の方法よりも反応がはるかに優れています。

ワクチンは感染症予防の最も効果的な方法でもあります。20 世紀には、天然痘に感染した人は約 3 億人でした。1977 年以降、天然痘の新たな症例は報告されていません。そのため、1980 年に天然痘は人類史上唯一根絶された病気となりました。この功績は天然痘ワクチンのおかげです。

ワクチン市場調査が重要な理由

ワクチン接種は、感染拡大と戦うための最速の方法であるため不可欠です。ワクチン市場調査により、医療システムは感染拡大に対して適切なアプローチを取ることができます。

例えば、1970年代、日本政府は百日咳の予防接種を全児童の4分の3以上に実施しました。その後、ワクチンは安全ではなく不要だという報告が相次ぎ、ワクチン接種を受ける人の数は激減しました。流行は再び始まり、数千人の患者と数十人の死者を出しました。ワクチン接種率が改善すると、患者数は再び減少しました。したがって、予防接種を軽視すべきではありません。

Vaccination Market Research: How Leading Manufacturers Win Share in a Crowded Pipeline

Vaccination market research has shifted from public health forecasting to commercial intelligence shaping launch sequencing, payer negotiations, and supply commitments. The manufacturers gaining ground treat it as a continuous discipline tied to specific decisions, not a periodic exercise.

The competitive set has widened. mRNA platforms from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech now compete against recombinant protein approaches from Novavax and Sanofi, conjugate technologies from Merck and GSK, and viral vector candidates advancing from Janssen and Bharat Biotech. Each platform carries different cost-of-goods, cold chain demands, and payer perception. Sizing the opportunity without isolating these variables produces forecasts that collapse on contact with procurement reality.

What Modern Vaccination Market Research Measures

The strongest commercial teams treat vaccines as a B2B procurement category, not a consumer product. The buyers are ministries of health, GAVI, PAHO Revolving Fund, integrated delivery networks, and pharmacy benefit managers. Each negotiates on tiered pricing, volume guarantees, and indication breadth. Research that ignores procurement architecture produces price points the market will never accept.

Useful vaccination market research isolates four variables: indication prioritization across pediatric, adult, and travel segments; platform competitive intelligence at the antigen level; payer value story construction with HTA submission evidence; and channel economics across public tender, retail pharmacy, and physician office. The output feeds launch sequencing decisions and bill of materials negotiations with contract manufacturers.

SIS International Research has observed across vaccine engagements in North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific that manufacturers consistently underweight the influence of pharmacy chains in adult immunization volume. CVS, Walgreens, and Boots in the UK now function as gatekeepers for influenza, shingles, and RSV uptake, and their formulary inclusion criteria differ materially from hospital systems.

Where Real-World Evidence Changes the Commercial Equation

Real-world evidence has become the asset that separates approved vaccines from reimbursed ones. NICE in the UK, IQWiG in Germany, and ICER in the United States increasingly require effectiveness data beyond pivotal trials before granting favorable positioning. Manufacturers building post-launch evidence generation into commercial planning capture price premiums others lose at the negotiation table.

The shift extends to private payers. UnitedHealthcare and Anthem now scrutinize duration of protection, breakthrough infection rates, and indirect benefits like reduced hospitalization in their coverage policies. Vaccines positioned only on seroconversion data face step-edits and prior authorization. Those positioned on outcomes data move directly to preferred status.

The opportunity sits in designing the evidence package before Phase III readout, not after. Leading commercial teams synchronize biostatistics, market access, and medical affairs around the payer questions that will define reimbursement five years out.

How KOL Mapping Drives Adoption Beyond Approval

KOL mapping in vaccines differs from oncology or rare disease. The opinion network includes ACIP voting members, JCVI advisors in the UK, STIKO experts in Germany, and CTV members in France whose recommendations drive national immunization schedules. A single recommendation from these bodies shifts commercial trajectory by orders of magnitude.

Below the policy tier sits a second network of pediatric society chairs, infectious disease department heads, and pharmacy benefit consultants who shape institutional protocols. Manufacturers mapping only the first tier miss the implementation layer where adoption stalls or accelerates.

Structured B2B expert interviews conducted by SIS with senior immunization advisors across G7 markets indicate that recommendation timing relative to procurement cycles produces larger commercial swings than the recommendation itself. A favorable position issued after annual tender awards delays revenue by a full season.

The Geographic Sequencing Decision

Launch sequencing in vaccines is a portfolio optimization problem. Markets differ on regulatory pathway, reimbursement timeline, manufacturing requirements, and competitive density. The instinct to lead in the United States often costs share in faster-converting markets like Germany, Australia, and Japan.

Source: SIS International Research, synthesis of vaccine market access engagements

The pattern manufacturers exploit: launch in two or three fast-conversion markets to build real-world evidence, then enter slower markets armed with effectiveness data the HTA bodies require. This sequencing produces cleaner pricing benchmarks and stronger reference price positions.

Competitive Intelligence at the Antigen Level

Vaccine competitive intelligence operates at finer resolution than most therapeutic categories. A single indication may host competitors with different valencies, adjuvant systems, and target populations. RSV illustrates the point: GSK’s Arexvy, Pfizer’s Abrysvo, and Moderna’s mResvia compete in adults over 60 with different efficacy profiles, dosing, and cold chain requirements. Sanofi and AstraZeneca’s nirsevimab competes in infants. Treating these as one market obscures the share dynamics that matter.

The same logic applies to pneumococcal, meningococcal, and HPV categories. Pfizer’s Prevnar 20 against Merck’s Vaxneuvance and Capvaxive plays out differently in pediatric versus adult segments, and differently again across public tender versus private channels. Vaccination market research that segments by valency, indication, and channel produces forecasts procurement teams trust.

The SIS Commercial Vaccine Intelligence Framework

SIS applies a four-layer framework to vaccination market research engagements:

• Demand layer: epidemiology, indication prioritization, and patient flow modeling across public and private channels.
• Access layer: HTA submission evidence, payer value story, and tender architecture across target geographies.
• ネットワーク層: KOL mapping across policy, institutional, and implementation tiers with influence weighting.
• Competitive layer: antigen-level platform benchmarking, cold chain economics, and supply commitment analysis.

The framework produces decisions, not decks. Commercial teams use it to defend launch sequencing, negotiate manufacturing capacity, and structure evidence generation before pivotal readouts.

Where Commercial Vaccine Strategy Is Heading

Three forces will shape the next decade of vaccination market research. mRNA platform expansion into seasonal influenza, RSV combinations, and oncology applications will compress development timelines and intensify launch overlap. Combination vaccines, particularly respiratory triples from Moderna and Pfizer, will reshape category economics and force payer reframing. Public-private financing structures, including advance market commitments and CEPI partnerships, will alter how commercial teams forecast emerging market revenue.

Manufacturers building continuous intelligence capability across these forces will win disproportionate share. Those treating vaccination market research as episodic will keep solving last cycle’s problem.

SISインターナショナルについて

SISインターナショナル offers Quantitative, Qualitative, and Strategy Research. We provide data, tools, strategies, reports, and insights for decision-making. We also conduct interviews, surveys, focus groups, and other Market Research methods and approaches. お問い合わせ 次の市場調査プロジェクトにご利用ください。