{"id":11888,"date":"2008-02-13T02:03:00","date_gmt":"2008-02-13T02:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/new-york-and-florida-real-estate-competitors\/"},"modified":"2026-01-26T18:35:11","modified_gmt":"2026-01-26T23:35:11","slug":"%e7%ba%bd%e7%ba%a6%e5%92%8c%e4%bd%9b%e7%bd%97%e9%87%8c%e8%be%be%e5%b7%9e%e7%9a%84%e6%88%bf%e5%9c%b0%e4%ba%a7%e7%ab%9e%e4%ba%89%e5%af%b9%e6%89%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/zh\/%e7%ba%bd%e7%ba%a6%e5%92%8c%e4%bd%9b%e7%bd%97%e9%87%8c%e8%be%be%e5%b7%9e%e7%9a%84%e6%88%bf%e5%9c%b0%e4%ba%a7%e7%ab%9e%e4%ba%89%e5%af%b9%e6%89%8b\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7ebd\u7ea6\u548c\u4f5b\u7f57\u91cc\u8fbe\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"SIS<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n

\u6982\u8ff0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u4e3b\u8981\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u4e1c\u6d77\u5cb8\u3001\u4e2d\u897f\u90e8\u3001\u897f\u6d77\u5cb8\u4e09\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u52a0\u5dde\u3001\u5bc6\u82cf\u91cc\u5dde\u3001\u5185\u5e03\u62c9\u65af\u52a0\u5dde\u3001\u5bbe\u5915\u6cd5\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5dde\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6765\u81ea\u4f5b\u7f57\u91cc\u8fbe\u5dde\u548c\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5dde\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e3b\u8981\u884c\u4e1a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u516c\u53f8\/\u5730\u70b9<\/strong><\/p>\n

A\u3002
\u6700\u5177\u5f39\u6027\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a<\/em><\/strong>
\u5728\u6ce2\u58eb\u987f\u548c\u4e39\u4f5b\u7b49\u9884\u8ba1\u590d\u82cf\u901f\u5ea6\u8f83\u6162\u7684\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4e70\u5bb6\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4f4e\u8ff7\u52a0\u4e0a\u4f4f\u623f\u5b58\u91cf\u8fc7\u5269\uff0c\u5ef6\u957f\u4e86\u4f4e\u8ff7\u671f\u3002NAR \u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6 Lawrence Yun \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e70\u5bb6\u6b63\u5728\u5bfb\u627e\u5e02\u573a\u89e6\u5e95\u7684\u660e\u663e\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\u5e76\u613f\u610f\u5728\u6b64\u4e4b\u524d\u4fdd\u6301\u89c2\u671b\u6001\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n

It’s easy to see why. Most of the country’s real estate markets<\/a> are feeling the effects of overproduction. A strong market hovers near a 1.5% vacancy rate, but the national average currently stands at 2.8% and in cities such as Miami, Atlanta and Denver, figures hang around 3.5%. In addition, every nugget of good news (a May Commerce Department report said that new-home sales are at a 14-year high) comes with bad news (median price growth is at a 10-year low).<\/p>\n

\u6570\u5b57\u80cc\u540e <\/em><\/strong>
Market corrections follow three basic recovery patterns. A V-shaped recovery where a market experiences a sharp, fast decline but comes out strong once it hits bottom; a U-shaped recovery, where prices decline gradually and recover slowly; and an L-shaped curve, a hard, fast fall with paltry price bounceback following the market<\/a> trough.<\/p>\n

The differences between a V-shaped market and a U-shaped one has to do with barriers to growth. High vacancy rates and high investor share can hurt a market<\/a>, but if the local economy remains strong and housing stock affordable it’s only a matter of how long it takes to absorb the excess inventory.<\/p>\n

\u6839\u636e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u3001\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u516c\u53f8 Moody's Economy.com \u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5766\u5e15\u662f V \u578b\u590d\u82cf\u7684\u5b8c\u7f8e\u5019\u9009\u5730\u3002\u5f53\u5730\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4fdd\u6301\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u6b21\u7ea7\u8d37\u6b3e\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u4f4e\u3002\u5766\u5e15\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4efd\u989d\u9ad8\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7a7a\u7f6e\u7387\u9ad8\u3002\u5f53\u5e02\u573a\u5728 2005 \u5e74\u6076\u5316\u65f6\uff0c\u5766\u5e15\u6709\u8d85\u8fc7 25% \u7684\u623f\u5c4b\u88ab\u7528\u4f5c\u6295\u8d44\u7269\u4e1a\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f4e\u8ff7\u671f\u95f4\u4f1a\u66f4\u5feb\u5730\u9003\u79bb\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u9020\u6210\u53ef\u7528\u4f4f\u623f\u5b58\u91cf\u8fc7\u5269\u3002\u5c31\u5766\u5e15\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7a7a\u7f6e\u7387\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a 3.5%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6839\u636e\u7a46\u8fea\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5766\u5e15\u5e94\u8be5\u4f1a\u6d88\u8017\u6389\u8fc7\u5269\u5e93\u5b58\uff0c\u5e76\u5728 2008 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u89e6\u53ca\u4ef7\u683c\u4f4e\u8c37\uff0c\u5c4a\u65f6\u9884\u8ba1\u4ef7\u683c\u5c06\u5728\u6b21\u5e74\u4e0a\u6da8 10.6%\u3002
\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u4f4f\u623f\u8d1f\u62c5\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u7a7a\u7f6e\u7387\u3001\u5f53\u5730\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5b9e\u529b\u30012005 \u5e74\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4efd\u989d\u4ee5\u53ca\u6b21\u7ea7\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u7684\u4efd\u989d\u3002\u6570\u636e\u6765\u81ea\u7a46\u8fea\u3001\u52b3\u5de5\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u548c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u300a\u4f4f\u623f\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u62ab\u9732\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u4f55\u8d44\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\uff09\u7684\u5e95\u90e8\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u4ef6\u56f0\u96be\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u57fa\u4e8e\u7a46\u8fea\u7684\u53ef\u9760\u6570\u636e\u548c\u5148\u8fdb\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u80fd\u591f\u7edd\u5bf9\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5176\u4ed6\u53cd\u5f39 <\/em><\/strong>
\u4e0e\u5766\u5e15\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u83f2\u5c3c\u514b\u65af\u540c\u6837\u53d7\u5230\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4efd\u989d\uff0826.1%\uff09\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5176\u7a7a\u7f6e\u7387\u8d85\u8fc7 3%\u3002\u826f\u597d\u7684\u8d1f\u62c5\u80fd\u529b\u7387\u548c\u4e0d\u65ad\u98d9\u5347\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u83f2\u5c3c\u514b\u65af\u89e6\u5e95\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u589e\u957f\u5c06\u5f3a\u52b2\u3002\u7a46\u8fea\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u83f2\u5c3c\u514b\u65af\u5c06\u5728 2008 \u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\u8fbe\u5230\u4ef7\u683c\u4f4e\u8c37\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5728\u6b21\u5e74\u589e\u957f 7.7%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u660e\u5c3c\u963f\u6ce2\u5229\u65af\u548c\u6ce2\u58eb\u987f\u7b49\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u8ba1\u590d\u82cf\u901f\u5ea6\u4f1a\u8f83\u6162\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f53\u5730\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f4e\u8ff7\u3001\u5c31\u4e1a\u589e\u957f\u7f13\u6162\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u4eba\u6570\u51cf\u5c11\u963b\u788d\u4e86\u957f\u671f\u524d\u666f\u3002\u8d5e\u8fea\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e02\u573a\u4ee5\u53ca\u8428\u514b\u62c9\u95e8\u6258\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6 U \u578b\u5e02\u573a\uff08\u6b21\u7ea7\u8d37\u6b3e\u4efd\u989d\u8fbe\u5230\u4e24\u4f4d\u6570\uff09\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u66f4\u96be\u6062\u590d\u3002<\/p>\n

That doesn’t necessarily mean V-shaped markets are in the clear. The labor markets in cities<\/a> such as Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Diego, whose future economic success will be critical to recovery, are heavily in housing-related industries, according to Moody’s. So long as those economies can weather their respective corrections, they should be all right.<\/p>\n

\u6700\u5b9e\u60e0\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6570\u5b57\u80cc\u540e <\/em><\/strong>
\u9996\u5148\u662f\u770b\u623f\u4ef7\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u4e0e\u5bb6\u5ead\u6536\u5165\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u8fd9\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e2d\u7b49\u5bb6\u5ead\u9700\u8981\u82b1\u591a\u5c11\u5e74\u7684\u5de5\u8d44\u624d\u80fd\u4e70\u4e0b\u4e2d\u7b49\u7684\u623f\u5b50\u3002\u5728\u5370\u7b2c\u5b89\u7eb3\u6ce2\u5229\u65af\uff0c\u4e2d\u7b49\u5bb6\u5ead\u6536\u5165\u4e3a $60,383\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u82b1\u5c06\u8fd1\u4e24\u5e74\u7684\u5de5\u8d44\u624d\u80fd\u4e70\u4e0b\u4e2d\u7b49\u7684\u623f\u5b50\u3002
\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6d1b\u6749\u77f6\u5c45\u6c11\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u4e00\u5b9a\u5f88\u4e0d\u9519\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6d1b\u6749\u77f6\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5bb6\u5ead\u6536\u5165\u4e3a $58,319\uff0c\u4f46\u4f4f\u623f\u4ef7\u683c\u5374\u6bd4\u5370\u7b2c\u5b89\u7eb3\u6ce2\u5229\u65af\u9ad8\u51fa\u4e94\u500d\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9879\u6307\u6807\u8ffd\u8e2a\u7684\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u552e\u51fa\u7684\u4e2d\u7b49\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u53ef\u8d1f\u62c5\u4f4f\u623f\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u3002<\/p>\n

This metric illustrates what’s at play in a market like San<\/a> Diego. The city might be in the midst of a price slump, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it has become significantly more affordable. Only 9% of San Diego homes sold in the first quarter of 2007 were within the reach of the median income-earning household, according to the National Association of Home Builders and the Wells Fargo affordability index, which assumes a 10% down payment and a market-rate mortgage.<\/p>\n

Economists say this indicates the top of the market<\/a> is moving, but the middle and bottom strata are having problems. In a market where housing is that unaffordable, buyers have to rely more heavily on credit. Potential future foreclosures can throw a market into stall–not a great sign for recovery.<\/p>\n

\u5408\u7406\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7
<\/strong>
\u5c06\u5723\u5730\u4e9a\u54e5\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u6700\u5b9e\u60e0\u5730\u533a\u7684\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u5370\u7b2c\u5b89\u7eb3\u6ce2\u5229\u65af\u7684\u623f\u5c4b\u9500\u552e\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd1 90% \u662f\u4e2d\u7b49\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u53ef\u4ee5\u8d1f\u62c5\u5f97\u8d77\u7684\u3002\u5728\u8f9b\u8f9b\u90a3\u63d0\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u5b57\u4e3a 78%\uff0c\u5728\u514b\u5229\u592b\u5170\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u5b57\u4e3a 82%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u540d\u5355\u4e0a\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8fbe\u62c9\u65af\u548c\u4e9a\u7279\u5170\u5927\uff0c\u6b63\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4f46\u4ef7\u683c\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u627f\u53d7\u3002
\u8fbe\u62c9\u65af\u7684\u623f\u4ef7\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u8d1f\u62c5\u80fd\u529b\u603b\u4f53\u6392\u540d\u7b2c\u4e03\uff0c\u800c\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u4e9a\u7279\u5170\u5927\u552e\u51fa\u7684\u623f\u5c4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e0d\u5230 70% \u662f\u4e2d\u7b49\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u53ef\u4ee5\u8d1f\u62c5\u5f97\u8d77\u7684\u3002\u5f53\u65b0\u623f\u5efa\u8bbe\u7387\u9ad8\u4e14\u589e\u957f\u9650\u5236\u653e\u5bbd\u65f6\uff0c\u5feb\u901f\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u623f\u4ef7\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u8d1f\u62c5\u5f97\u8d77\u3002
\u9ad8\u9700\u6c42\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u59a8\u788d\u8d1f\u62c5\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e86\u89e3\u6ce2\u58eb\u987f\u548c\u5317\u5361\u7f57\u6765\u7eb3\u5dde\u7f57\u5229\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff1b\u81ea 2000 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6ce2\u58eb\u987f\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u79fb\u6c11\uff0c\u800c\u7f57\u5229\u5219\u8fce\u6765\u4e86\u65b0\u5c45\u6c11\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6ce2\u58eb\u987f\u623f\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e86 16.7%\uff0c\u4e2d\u7b49\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u6240\u80fd\u8d1f\u62c5\u7684\u4f4f\u623f\u6570\u91cf\u53ea\u6709\u4e03\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u3002\u5728\u7f57\u5229\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e86 37%\uff0c\u4f46\u80fd\u8d1f\u62c5\u5f97\u8d77\u4f4f\u623f\u7684\u4e2d\u7b49\u6536\u5165\u8005\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4ec5\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86 3%\uff0c\u800c\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8be5\u5e02\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u4eba\u53e3\u6fc0\u589e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u539f\u56e0\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u65b0\u623f\u5efa\u8bbe\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u800c\u76d1\u7ba1\u4e0d\u529b\u7684\u589e\u957f\u653f\u7b56\u4e3a\u7f57\u5229\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u4ef7\u683c\u7f13\u89e3\u3002\u6ce2\u58eb\u987f\u6ca1\u6709\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u65b0\u623f\u5efa\u8bbe\u4e5f\u4e0d\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f57\u5229\u548c\u590f\u6d1b\u7279\u5206\u522b\u6392\u540d\u7b2c 12 \u4f4d\u548c\u7b2c 13 \u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n

B.
\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u548c\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a<\/strong>

\u9996\u4ed8\u5377\u571f\u91cd\u6765<\/em><\/p>\n

As a result of the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, lenders will — gasp! — once again require down payments, filling the market with unsold homes<\/a> and driving down prices.<\/p>\n

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Subprime ripple effect hits retail real estate according to market research<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

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And shopping centers have been caught in the credit squeeze that has transformed the capital markets<\/a>. Private buyers, who were once able to finance 95 percent or more of the cost of a transaction, are being driven out of the market because such high leverage is no longer available.<\/p>\n

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\u00a0<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/span><\/span>\u6982\u8ff0<\/strong><\/p>\n

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