{"id":15185,"date":"2015-04-08T22:16:36","date_gmt":"2015-04-08T22:16:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/?page_id=15185"},"modified":"2025-09-08T12:22:38","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T16:22:38","slug":"scenario-planning","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/nl\/oplossingen\/strategieconsulting\/scenario-planning\/","title":{"rendered":"Scenario Planning Strategie Consulting"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scenario Planning Strategie Consulting<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"gb-block-image gb-block-image-a5afa789\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1456\" height=\"816\" class=\"gb-image gb-image-a5afa789\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Strategy-consulting-30.jpg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Strategy-consulting-30.jpg 1456w, https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Strategy-consulting-30-300x168.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Strategy-consulting-30-1024x574.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Strategy-consulting-30-768x430.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Strategy-consulting-30-18x10.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px\" alt=\"SIS Internationaal Marktonderzoek &amp; Strategie\"><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">About Scenario Planning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The military and Royal Dutch Shell are often associated with early adoption, as well as continued use of a strategic planning tool used to create \u201cplausible\u201d stories about the future. This tool is called Scenario Planning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It differs in many ways from similar sounding, and more commonly used financial forecasting tools which generate Best, Worst, and Most Likely cases (or scenarios).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span class=\"s1\">The key word here is \u201cplausible\u201d.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp; <\/span>In other words, scenarios are not \u201cgood\u201d or \u201cbad\u201d.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span class=\"s1\">Each scenario or story has a plot with characters, settings, and outcomes that are developed and finally analyzed in an effort to see how each might play out. The story can then be shared and popularized with everyone in a company as a way to think about its alternate futures.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As an example, teams might be asked to write newspaper headlines that would appear 10-20 years from now(if there are still newspapers!), and then work backwards to explain what had to have happened to get there, e.g. \u201cXYZ Company finds oil on a newly discovered planet!\u201d or \u201cThe Euro has been officially replaced by Bitcoin!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"s1\">When to use Scenario Planning<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Scenario Planning is useful in VUCA situations &#8212; Volatile, Uncertain, Chaotic and Ambiguous Situations. &nbsp;Scenario Planning is most useful when:<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When there is high uncertainty<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When there is a need for divergent thinking<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When an industry is in in the midst of significant change<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When major differences in views of the future exist<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><span class=\"s1\">This process starts with a critical objective or a question needing to be addressed.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/span><span class=\"s1\">For example, what will your company look like in 10 years? What <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/nl\/belangrijkste-succesfactoren-in-automotive-marktonderzoek\/\" title=\"Belangrijkste succesfactoren in marktonderzoek voor de automobielindustrie\"  data-wpil-monitor-id=\"10771\">key<\/a> decisions need to be made in the present that will have an impact on its future success \u2013 or even its very existence?!&nbsp;&nbsp;Make, buy, or partner? Merge or be acquired?<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp; <\/span>Expand your global footprint?<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span class=\"s2\"><strong>Note<\/strong>:&nbsp;<\/span><span class=\"s1\">It is very important to have buy-in from top management.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp; <\/span>Without such support, the process may not succeed.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp; <\/span>One must have an open mind and be willing to forego some beliefs or traditional behaviors.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"s1\">How to conduct Scenario Planning<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><span class=\"s1\">A considerable amount of resources are required to properly conduct scenario planning.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp; <\/span>Diverse corporate or divisional teams need to be created.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp; <\/span>They need to have several training sessions and meetings consuming a few days.&nbsp;<\/span><span class=\"s1\">More likely than not, it will be necessary to hire a qualified third party company capable of facilitating the entire program.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/span><span class=\"s1\">As a rule of thumb, a proposal should be sent for bid to at least three potential providers of such services.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Scenario Planning process includes the following activities:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Identifying the forces of change and uncertainties. &nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Choosing the two most important uncertainties. &nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Identifying the end points as the extreme points. &nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Plotting the extreme points of the uncertainties. &nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Creating scenarios<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Identifying which is the most likely <\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Assigning probabilities. &nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Working out the impact of each scenario on the organization. &nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Plotting the courses of action and steps to take.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><span class=\"s1\">During the process, high level <\/span><span class=\"s2\">drivers or forces<\/span><span class=\"s1\">, will be identified.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp; <\/span>They may then be examined and ranked in terms of their respective influence as well as level of uncertainty or risk. A few prime examples include:<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span class=\"s1\">Energie<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span class=\"s1\">Technologie<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Society &amp; Social Issues<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span class=\"s1\">Economic conditions<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span class=\"s1\">The Environment<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span class=\"s1\">Politics and laws<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span class=\"s1\">Concurrentie<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><span class=\"s1\">In addition, some <\/span><span class=\"s2\">trends&nbsp;<\/span><span class=\"s1\">will be considered more certain to occur or continue, e.g. birth rate, life expectancy, divorce rate, growth of large cities, wealth concentration.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Teams should ultimately develop 3 to 4 scenarios by discussing how the various drivers, forces and other factors could possibly interact to create a particular future outcome.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span class=\"s1\">Each scenario or story will be assigned a memorable and meaningful title\u2026they can even be funny or portrayed as an image or picture.&nbsp;<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Appropriate decision makers can then utilize these stories as an aid to formulating both short and long term actions.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"s1\">Is Scenario Planning for you?<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"gb-block-image gb-block-image-2210413b\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1456\" height=\"816\" class=\"gb-image gb-image-2210413b\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Strategy-consulting-16.jpg\" alt=\"SIS Internationaal Marktonderzoek &amp; Strategie\" title=\"Strategy consulting (16)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Strategy-consulting-16.jpg 1456w, https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Strategy-consulting-16-300x168.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Strategy-consulting-16-1024x574.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Strategy-consulting-16-768x430.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Strategy-consulting-16-18x10.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px\"><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span class=\"s1\">Are you or your top management thinking beyond the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/nl\/expertise\/industrieen\/marktonderzoek-automobielindustrie\/future-of-electric-vehicles-in-the-usa\/\" title=\"The Future of Electric Vehicles in the USA &#8211; The Next 5 Years\"  data-wpil-monitor-id=\"9049\">next fiscal quarter or year<\/a>?<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp; <\/span>Are they discussing \u201cWhat if\u2026?\u201d types of questions that extend at least 5-10 years ahead?<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp; <\/span>And are they willing to commit to a process that might cause some discomfort and alter their thinking?&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/span><span class=\"s1\">If the answer is \u201cyes\u201d to all, then the use of this strategic tool should at least be considered.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With Scenario Planning, you can better identify the uncertainties and the most important scenarios. &nbsp;You can then advocate for whether incremental or immediate action is needed.&nbsp;<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Decisions can be made on the optimal scenario, &nbsp;on whether to, for example, acquire or partner with external companies, what changes to make, and when to make changes. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"s1\">What to expect from Scenario Planning<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><span class=\"s1\">Scenario Planning is intended to help a company to make strategic decisions. Ideally, it is an ongoing process that is revisited and updated periodically.&nbsp;<\/span><span class=\"s1\">As part of the process, key indicators or <\/span><strong><span class=\"s2\">early warning signals<\/span><\/strong><span class=\"s1\"> will have been identified.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp; <\/span>These will be monitored, and their emergence will announce that a particular future may be about to occur.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">&nbsp; <\/span>At this point, previously agreed upon actions may be implemented.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span class=\"s1\">And so, having planned for a number of different outcomes, your company will be better prepared to anticipate and react to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/nl\/oplossingen\/kwalitatieve-kwantitatieve-onderzoeksoplossingen\/human-factors-market-research\/\" title=\"Marktonderzoek naar menselijke factoren\"  data-wpil-monitor-id=\"9048\">factors and drivers in its market<\/a> En <strong>navigate through them<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Met scenarioplanning onderzoekt u de beste resultaten en groeimogelijkheden voor uw bedrijf.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":62564,"parent":14567,"menu_order":4,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-15185","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/15185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15185"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/15185\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":81765,"href":"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/15185\/revisions\/81765"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/14567"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62564"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}