{"id":21206,"date":"2016-12-09T18:41:40","date_gmt":"2016-12-09T18:41:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/?page_id=21206"},"modified":"2026-01-26T18:35:10","modified_gmt":"2026-01-26T23:35:10","slug":"au-bord-dune-catastrophe-apres-chavez-venezuela","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.sisinternational.com\/fr\/publications\/au-bord-dune-catastrophe-apres-chavez-venezuela\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9tude de march\u00e9 au Venezuela"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00c9tude de march\u00e9 au Venezuela<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
\"\u00c9tudes<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Au lendemain de Ch\u00e1vez<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Since the death of charismatic United Socialist Party leader Hugo Chavez in 2013, Venezuela has struggled during the presidential tenure of his hand-picked successor, Nicol\u00e1s Maduro. With a one-product economy based almost entirely on oil production, the financial fortunes and the quality of life for many in Venezuela have plummeted in direct relationship to world oil prices. Already in decline during Chavez\u2019s waning years in office, under Maduro the decline has devolved into an outright collapse. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aujourd\u2019hui, le gouvernement est incapable d\u2019importer ou de fournir ne serait-ce que des produits de base. Les gens se rassemblent pendant des heures interminables en longues files d'attente, attendant d'obtenir des articles m\u00e9nagers, des m\u00e9dicaments et de la nourriture. Alors que les conditions continuent de se d\u00e9t\u00e9riorer, les incidents de protestation, de pillage et de violence deviennent plus courants. Maduro attribue les p\u00e9nuries \u00e0 la th\u00e9saurisation et \u00e0 la contrebande, mais beaucoup consid\u00e8rent que la mauvaise gestion du gouvernement en est la cause. Les industries nationales souffrent elles aussi et leurs niveaux de production ont \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9duits \u00e0 n\u00e9ant. Pendant ce temps, la cote de cr\u00e9dit du Venezuela est en territoire ind\u00e9sirable. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Price controls are in effect to protect consumers from runaway inflation and currency has been shockingly devalued. Exports are shutting down, and companies continue to leave the country or close down. Inflation has risen into triple-digit territory \u2013 the highest in the world \u2013 and salaries are far from keeping pace. Crime is on the upswing in Caracas and to a greater degree in the interior of the country. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"\u00c9tudes<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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Il est difficile d\u2019imaginer qu\u2019une d\u00e9cennie auparavant, le Venezuela ait connu l\u2019un des plus grands booms des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res de l\u2019histoire moderne, avec des recettes p\u00e9troli\u00e8res brutes estim\u00e9es \u00e0 pr\u00e8s d\u2019un demi-billion de dollars, \u00e0 \u00e9galit\u00e9 avec celles du Kowe\u00eft. Pourtant, par la suite, la mauvaise gestion \u00e9conomique et la chute des prix mondiaux du p\u00e9trole ont laiss\u00e9 le pays dans un \u00e9tat de ruine, avec peu d\u2019espoir d\u2019un soulagement imm\u00e9diat. Les troubles sociaux sont monnaie courante et le sentiment dominant que le Venezuela a atteint un point de rupture est omnipr\u00e9sent. Le gouvernement a jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 se mettre \u00e0 l\u2019abri de la tourmente, mais un remaniement pourrait bien se produire. Maduro sera-t-il le dernier leader chaviste ? Le temps nous le dira. En attendant, il adopte un ton plus autoritaire et plus dur. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00ab Craignant que les troubles publics ne d\u00e9g\u00e9n\u00e8rent en quelque chose de plus grave, le gouvernement a d\u00e9sormais d\u00e9ploy\u00e9 des troupes pour contr\u00f4ler les files d'attente d'acheteurs m\u00e9contents devant les magasins \u00e0 moiti\u00e9 vides du pays. Et il a introduit un syst\u00e8me de rationnement, limitant les achats \u00e0 deux jours par semaine dans les magasins contr\u00f4l\u00e9s par le gouvernement. Comme Bloomberg<\/i> cynically put it, \u201cVenezuela reduces lines by trimming shoppers, not shortages.\u201d.1<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essentiellement, le d\u00e9sastre v\u00e9n\u00e9zu\u00e9lien en cours est consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme un cas d\u2019\u00e9cole montrant comment pas<\/i> g\u00e9rer une \u00e9conomie \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e8re du capitalisme mondial. C\u2019est sans aucun doute un mod\u00e8le \u00e9conomique rat\u00e9. \u00c0 l\u2019heure actuelle, le dollar a cent fois plus de valeur sur le march\u00e9 noir qu\u2019en bourse. Il est tout \u00e0 fait possible qu\u2019\u00e0 un moment donn\u00e9, le Venezuela doive faire d\u00e9faut. Avec un p\u00e9trole inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 $50 le baril, le pays perd constamment de l\u2019argent. On estime qu\u2019ils perdent chaque mois des r\u00e9serves de $2B.<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

La hausse des prix du p\u00e9trole r\u00e9soudrait-elle les probl\u00e8mes du Venezuela ?<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

World oil prices historically fluctuate. While they are presently at rock bottom, most industry prognosticators feel that prices will inevitably rise once again. Unfortunately for big oil-producing nations such as Venezuela, just when this might occur is uncertain. Certainly, a normalizing of oil prices would help to keep Venezuela solvent and operative. At $70-$80-a-barrel, it could sustain itself and feed its people. Concurrently, if the people do better, the Chavista government stands a far better chance of enduring. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comme l'a rapport\u00e9 r\u00e9cemment Voix de l'Am\u00e9rique<\/i>, \u201cVenezuela is among the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries most deeply wounded by the oil price fall. Its need for OPEC to cut supply to support prices has failed to shift the stance of Saudi Arabia and its Gulf OPEC allies, which are focusing on protecting market share.\u201d2 Sans<\/a> assurances from Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Russia and other petroleum-rich nations to curb production, the immediate financial outlook for Venezuela is grim.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, other problems existed before the bottom fell out of the oil market. Even if and when oil prices rise, Venezuela will have to deal with its broken system, price controls, gas subsidies, rationing, and inadequate food supplies. Paying off creditors won\u2019t help a hungry populace. An influx of cash also won\u2019t restore political freedoms. Ch\u00e1vez and Maduro dealt with a lot of problems by throwing money at them. With the money gone, that\u2019s no longer possible. At best, a new infusion of oil money might help them to kick the can down the road a bit further, but it\u2019s no magic bullet. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Venezuela : d\u00e9mocratie ou pas ?<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite all of the accusations leveled against it, the Chavista government of Venezuela built its legitimacy on fair electoral processes and relatively clean elections. Today, however, the playing field is uneven. The government controls all of the institutions and the people are unable to express their choices freely.\u00a0 <\/span>Selon La b\u00eate quotidienne<\/i>, \u00ab\u00a0L'Assembl\u00e9e nationale du Venezuela a approuv\u00e9\u00a0Pr\u00e9sident Nicolas Maduro<\/span><\/a>(demande r\u00e9cente) de gouverner par d\u00e9cret pour la deuxi\u00e8me fois depuis son entr\u00e9e en fonction en 2013. La d\u00e9cision accorde au pr\u00e9sident une autorit\u00e9 sp\u00e9ciale \u00e9largie en dehors des pouvoirs ex\u00e9cutifs. Maduro a qualifi\u00e9 cela de campagne pour lutter contre l\u2019imp\u00e9rialisme.\u00bb<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ce qui reste est un g\u00e9r\u00e9<\/i> d\u00e9mocratie. L\u2019opposition de Maduro pourrait parler de dictature. Le gouvernement contr\u00f4lant la part du lion des m\u00e9dias, il est en mesure de l'utiliser pour g\u00e9n\u00e9rer le vote. Les employ\u00e9s du gouvernement sont invit\u00e9s \u00e0 assister aux manifestations pro-gouvernementales. Les candidats de l\u2019opposition se sont m\u00eame vu interdire de se pr\u00e9senter aux \u00e9lections, au grand dam des groupes de d\u00e9fense des droits humains. Maduro souffre d\u2019autres malheurs parce qu\u2019il lui manque manifestement le charisme qu\u2019Hugo Ch\u00e1vez poss\u00e9dait et utilisait \u00e0 bon escient. Une gr\u00e2ce salvatrice pour les chavistes est l\u2019incapacit\u00e9 de l\u2019opposition \u00e0 s\u2019unifier et \u00e0 surmonter ses propres tendances conflictuelles. Ils pourraient perdre aux prochaines \u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives parce qu\u2019ils ne parviennent pas \u00e0 s\u2019unir. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notation des institutions d\u00e9mocratiques du Venezuela <\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Venezuela has a long history of crony interests exploiting situations for their own gain. Even Chavez was seen as channeling the hatred of older political factions to obtain power. The Venezuelan constitution has been rewritten numerous times for political expediency. The State Assembly was often used as a rubber stamp to enforce Ch\u00e1vez\u2019s power.\u00a0 <\/span>Des tactiques d'intimidation ont \u00e9t\u00e9 et sont fr\u00e9quemment utilis\u00e9es pour museler les dirigeants de l'opposition tels que Leopoldo Lopez, actuellement en prison sur la base d'accusations forg\u00e9es de toutes pi\u00e8ces selon lesquelles il aurait inspir\u00e9 des \u00e9meutes et des violences contre le r\u00e9gime de Maduro. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Une corruption massive est \u00e9vidente et l\u2019arm\u00e9e semble \u00eatre complice, l\u2019officier de longue date Diostado Cavelo \u00e9tant si \u00e9troitement li\u00e9 \u00e0 Maduro que beaucoup ont le sentiment qu\u2019il \u00ab dirige secr\u00e8tement le spectacle \u00bb. Cavelo fait actuellement l'objet d'une enqu\u00eate pour implication pr\u00e9sum\u00e9e dans des cartels de la drogue et pour la livraison de coca\u00efne aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Contrairement \u00e0 la s\u00e9paration des pouvoirs que l\u2019on observe couramment dans de nombreux pays, tout le monde marche aux ordres du pouvoir ex\u00e9cutif au Venezuela. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is Chavez Still A Hero to The Poor?<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Though it has been some time now since the passing of Hugo Chavez, his legacy and legend still live in Venezuela. This is especially true among the nation\u2019s poor and among Chavista leaders. \u201cSince Chavez\u2019s death after a battle with an undisclosed cancer in 2013, the government and the PSUV party have made great efforts to present him as a national hero and capitalize his legacy. President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro mentions Ch\u00e1vez<\/span> in almost every speech, urging people to follow his example.\u201d4\u00a0 It\u2019s true that no one has benefitted quite as much from attaching himself to Chavez\u2019s enduring popularity as Maduro. Since his Chavez-endorsed election, there have been chronic shortages, sporadic violence, inflation, and accusations of impropriety on many levels, but past association with Chavez allowed Maduro to cling to<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

power. However, when people can\u2019t eat and have no money, their patience can begin to erode. Even Maduro is playing the \u201cChavez card\u201d less and less, as it is a currency that no longer guarantees reverence or votes at election time. Many feel the true revolution died along with Chavez. Perhaps not even another compelling charismatic could revive it. From colorful murals on building exteriors to stories that still circulate among the faithful, Chavez image and his savior-status among the poor still survives, due to his personal magnetism, the work he did for the disadvantaged, and the way he stood up to and defied the establishment. The Oligopoly that he railed against did in fact exist, . It was a system that deeply entrenched the powers of a small group of the privileged <\/span>elite. Today, Maduro can still blame Venezuela\u2019s problems on these entitled few. It is this class-driven cleavage that makes governing extremely difficult. In truth, unless oil prices rebound and reverses the country\u2019s economic fortunes, these lingering echoes of Chavista glory may fade forever. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

L'importance de la r\u00e9volution bolivarienne <\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\u00c9tudes<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La r\u00e9volution bolivarienne a entra\u00een\u00e9 une formidable redistribution des richesses au 20<\/span>\u00e8me<\/sup><\/span>si\u00e8cle en Am\u00e9rique du Sud, conduisant \u00e0 une transformation compl\u00e8te du Venezuela au cours des 16 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. Le boom p\u00e9trolier a permis \u00e0 Hugo Ch\u00e1vez de consacrer d\u2019importantes sommes d\u2019argent \u00e0 de g\u00e9n\u00e9reux programmes sociaux. Aujourd\u2019hui, la plupart de ces programmes ont \u00e9chou\u00e9. Malgr\u00e9 cela, les pauvres continuent de soutenir le gouvernement chaviste, estimant que la situation serait encore pire sous un r\u00e9gime de droite. Beaucoup pr\u00e9f\u00e9reraient supporter de longues files d\u2019attente et des marchandises bon march\u00e9 plut\u00f4t que de soutenir une opposition qui, selon eux, ferait monter les prix encore plus haut. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cPrior to its current domestic woes, Venezuela worked hard and often succeeded in establishing itself as a major alternative influence in Latin America, as a kind of \u201cBolivarian\u201d power. Now, Venezuela must confront the fact that the conditions once anchoring its global aspirations \u2013 like excessive revenues generated by the petrostate \u2013 have evaporated. Venezuela\u2019s capabilities for international power projection are constrained by domestic unrest, r\u00e9serves internationales \u00e9puis\u00e9es<\/span><\/a>, inflation galopante<\/span>, la faiblesse des prix du p\u00e9trole et production p\u00e9troli\u00e8re atone<\/span><\/a>, ce qui rend les perspectives de prolongation du projet bolivarien international de plus en plus sombres.\u00bb<\/span>12<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essentiellement, Chavez a transform\u00e9 \u00e0 lui seul la psych\u00e9 v\u00e9n\u00e9zu\u00e9lienne. Il a donn\u00e9 du pouvoir aux pauvres et les a fait participer au processus politique. Maduro est peut-\u00eatre impopulaire, mais le c\u0153ur de la r\u00e9volution bat toujours dans le c\u0153ur de nombreux V\u00e9n\u00e9zu\u00e9liens. Ils n'ont pas oubli\u00e9 les temps meilleurs. Les dirigeants de l'opposition font des promesses populistes pour tenter de s\u00e9duire les \u00e9lecteurs chavistes, mais la m\u00e9fiance du peuple est forte. Les racines de la r\u00e9volution reposaient sur la fin des in\u00e9galit\u00e9s \u00e9conomiques, mais la corruption a \u00e9touff\u00e9 cette intention. Pour les investisseurs internationaux, le sentiment persistant \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de Chavez est consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme une menace. Pour d\u2019autres, c\u2019est un r\u00eave d\u2019espoir qui, m\u00eame marginalis\u00e9, perdure. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Droits civiques, droits de l\u2019homme et conditions de vie des pauvres\u2026 <\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In Venezuela today, there is growing discontent and repression. There are long lines with hundreds of people waiting for subsidized food and supplies. Among the ranks of the waiting there is hatred, aggression and fear. The people, while not starving, are surely struggling and crime is escalating to the point where the people no longer feel safe. The police who might protect the citizenry are corrupt. It is estimated that of all the homicides committed in Venezuela (and it has one of the highest murder rates in the world) only 3% of perpetrators are ever prosecuted. The country\u2019s prisons are among the world\u2019s worst according to the U.N. At the root of this crime-wave is social inequality and the great and widening gulf between the haves and the have-nots that dates back over 100 years.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le socialisme de Hugo Ch\u00e1vez a tent\u00e9 de rem\u00e9dier \u00e0 cette in\u00e9galit\u00e9, mais sans succ\u00e8s. Le gouvernement Maduro semble avoir perdu sa capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 maintenir ses politiques populistes ant\u00e9rieures. Le d\u00e9sespoir qui en r\u00e9sulte se manifeste par une criminalit\u00e9 croissante, la contrebande, le commerce sur le march\u00e9 noir et une diminution de l'incitation des gens \u00e0 travailler en raison de sa futilit\u00e9 ultime.\u00a0 <\/span>Those who managed to escape poverty during Chavez\u2019 glory years now find themselves slipping back into it. Segregation is evident and the pall of depression is palpable in the air. In addition, Venezuela is suffering from acute exode des cerveaux<\/i>, ou un exode de professionnels tels que des m\u00e9decins, des ing\u00e9nieurs, des avocats et d'autres professionnels qui ont quitt\u00e9 le pays \u00e0 la recherche d'un endroit moins volatile pour faire des affaires. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les candidats aux \u00e9lections et les personnes qui votent pour ou contre eux trouvent le Venezuela un endroit de plus en plus hostile \u00e0 la politique. Selon Jos\u00e9 Miguel Vivanco, directeur des Am\u00e9riques \u00e0 Human Rights Watch, \u00ab le gouvernement du Venezuela utilise le syst\u00e8me judiciaire comme fa\u00e7ade, mais la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 est que les juges et les procureurs v\u00e9n\u00e9zu\u00e9liens sont devenus des soldats ob\u00e9issants. Les autorit\u00e9s v\u00e9n\u00e9zu\u00e9liennes abusent r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement de leurs pouvoirs pour limiter la libert\u00e9 d\u2019expression, sapant ainsi un d\u00e9bat d\u00e9mocratique ouvert, particuli\u00e8rement crucial \u00e0 l\u2019approche des \u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives de d\u00e9cembre.<\/span>5 <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Various political leaders have been jailed, driven from the country, or sued. Of course, jailing political prisoners on trumped-up charges is a classic totalitarian approach. Intimidation is also an effective method of repression, and it\u2019s often done in such a way that the government can wash its hands of any implications of wrongdoing. Chavista thugs and motorcycle gangs have been known to terrorize journalists under the guise of being independent citizens. Even Twitter users on social media have been jailed for inflammatory comments concerning Maduro, instilling fear in not only journalists, but voters as well. Protests are met with harsh police crackdowns and the journalists who cover them routinely have their cameras confiscated or worse. It\u2019s estimated that 70-80 press members are presently imprisoned in Venezuela. Even the mayor of Caracas is under house arrest. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leaders \u00e9mergents et personnalit\u00e9s politiques bien \u00e9tablies<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Peut-\u00eatre qu'aucune arrestation politique au Venezuela n'a \u00e9t\u00e9 plus m\u00e9diatis\u00e9e que celle du chef de l'opposition, L\u00e9opoldo L\u00f3pez<\/b>. Le New York Times<\/i> a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 : \u00ab Les accusations port\u00e9es contre M. L\u00f3pez, ancien maire form\u00e9 \u00e0 Harvard et d'une des municipalit\u00e9s qui composent Caracas, \u00e9taient scandaleuses. M. Maduro a ordonn\u00e9 son arrestation en f\u00e9vrier 2014 et l'a accus\u00e9 d'avoir attis\u00e9 la violence alors que les manifestations contre le gouvernement se multipliaient. Le gouvernement, dans sa plainte p\u00e9nale, a affirm\u00e9 de mani\u00e8re absurde que M. L\u00f3pez avait incit\u00e9 les V\u00e9n\u00e9zu\u00e9liens \u00e0 la violence au moyen de messages subliminaux.<\/span>6<\/span> Aujourd'hui, Lopez est le seul prisonnier du b\u00e2timent o\u00f9 il est d\u00e9tenu, avec six portes verrouill\u00e9es entre sa cellule d'isolement et sa libert\u00e9. Bien s\u00fbr, il ne serait pas incarc\u00e9r\u00e9 si Maduro ne le percevait pas comme une menace. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, many feel there is a dearth of leadership in Venezuela. On the Chavista side, Chavez was able to nurture a cult of personality, but wherever this occurs, a charismatic tends to be surrounded by mediocrity. Case in point,\u00a0 <\/span>Nicolas Maduro. N'ayant pas la personnalit\u00e9 de Chavez, il ne jouit pas de la popularit\u00e9 de son pr\u00e9d\u00e9cesseur aupr\u00e8s du peuple. Il a h\u00e9rit\u00e9 du calice empoisonn\u00e9 d\u2019une nation au mod\u00e8le \u00e9conomique en faillite. Imaginez g\u00e9rer un endroit o\u00f9 l'inflation approche 100% et o\u00f9 les gens font la queue pendant des heures pour de maigres rations dans le cadre d'un programme d'identification qui est exploit\u00e9 par des gangs et transform\u00e9 en une livraison de nourriture brutale.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Diosdado Cabello<\/b>, pr\u00e9sident de l'Assembl\u00e9e nationale,  <\/span>est un homme de main sournois et impitoyable, mais il n'a aucun soutien populaire. Il serait un leader logique en cas de prise de pouvoir par une junte ou par l\u2019arm\u00e9e.  <\/span>Cabello excite, motive et suscite la loyaut\u00e9 des \u00e9l\u00e9ments les plus radicaux de l\u2019opposition, mais il n\u2019a aucune influence aupr\u00e8s des partisans du chavisme en raison de sa politique \u00e9conomique libertaire radicale et de son pass\u00e9 privil\u00e9gi\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Candidat de l'opposition \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sidentielle, Henrique Capriles<\/b>, is a major player with good support, but he may be seen among voters as a has-been. He has had chances in the past as an opposition leader to create change, so it is hard to imagine him creating much of a buzz. Chavista defector and Lara state Governor Henri Faucon<\/b> est un mod\u00e9r\u00e9 qui sait trouver le juste milieu. Il parvient \u00e0 garder un profil bas et est consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme un cheval noir \u00e0 surveiller.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Selon Fox News.com, \u00ab<\/span>Les responsables \u00e9lectoraux v\u00e9n\u00e9zu\u00e9liens ont rejet\u00e9 un leader de l\u2019opposition de premier plan Maria Corina Machado<\/b>de s'inscrire comme candidat aux prochaines \u00e9lections au Congr\u00e8s. Machado a annonc\u00e9 lundi (28\/09\/15) que le Conseil \u00e9lectoral national avait rejet\u00e9 sa tentative de s'inscrire pour se pr\u00e9senter aux \u00e9lections du 6 d\u00e9cembre. Machado qualifie le rejet de sa candidature de violation grotesque de ses droits.\u00bb<\/span>7<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les prochaines \u00e9lections : pr\u00e9visions et r\u00e9sultats possibles<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\u00c9tudes<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les \u00e9lections parlementaires de d\u00e9cembre 2015 au Venezuela sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9es par certains comme le dernier espoir des citoyens de tendance d\u00e9mocratique d'exprimer leurs souhaits et d'am\u00e9liorer leur pays par les urnes. Apr\u00e8s cela, c'est un territoire inexplor\u00e9. La plupart pensent que l\u2019opposition s\u2019en sortira bien, ce qui est une grande nouvelle apr\u00e8s de nombreuses ann\u00e9es de domination chaviste aux \u00e9lections. Cependant, l\u2019opposition n\u2019est pas particuli\u00e8rement unie et il se peut qu\u2019il n\u2019y ait pas une seule figure de proue lorsque la fum\u00e9e se dissipera. La capacit\u00e9 du pr\u00e9sident Maduro \u00e0 gouverner d\u00e9pendra du d\u00e9roulement des \u00e9lections. Diosdado Cabello, en tant que pr\u00e9sident de l'Assembl\u00e9e nationale, tentera d'exploiter toute l'impulsion que l'opposition peut trouver.  <\/span>Alors que certains pr\u00e9disent une victoire \u00e9crasante de l\u2019opposition, on peut se demander si le gouvernement permettre<\/i> une telle chose se produise. Comme cela a \u00e9t\u00e9 mentionn\u00e9,  <\/span>personnalit\u00e9s de l'opposition  <\/span>Leopoldo Lopez et Maria Corina Machado ont \u00e9t\u00e9 emprisonn\u00e9s et\/ou  <\/span>interdit de participer aux \u00e9lections. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another government advantage is near outright ownership of the media airwaves. The opposition candidates, once they declare, are immediately intimidated by the government and not allowed to have adequate airtime. For the most part they are denigrated, criticized, and are said to be fomenting violence and unrest. Of course, if the Chavistas lose, they won\u2019t control all of the government anymore. In that event, they may attempt to enact laws that limit congressional power. Regardless of the outcome,\u00a0 <\/span>\u201cAccording to a leading Venezuelan polling organization, Datan\u00e1lisis, 84 percent of the population believes that the country is on the wrong path and only 13 percent view Venezuela\u2019s situation positively.\u201d8<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Libert\u00e9 de la presse? Qualit\u00e9 des informations ? <\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Depuis<\/span> <\/b>Nicol\u00e1s Maduro assumed power in Venezuela, journalistic opinion and information are allowed much less space in available publications. Local news outlets have been bought out by government supporters or have been driven out of business altogether, their resources often drained by ongoing court cases. In many instances they are refused permission to advertise or broadcast. Even worse, journalists are often jailed or fined by a wary government intent on neutralizing negative reports on\u00a0its conduct and policies. Freedom of the press is not altogether forbidden as it is in North Korea, but those who do publish anti-government content are almost sure to not be publishing much longer. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour contourner les mesures prises par le gouvernement pour \u00e9touffer la libert\u00e9 de la presse, de nombreux journalistes se sont tourn\u00e9s vers Internet, utilisant des blogs et publiant via des m\u00e9dias \u00e9trangers. Cependant, le r\u00e9gime de Maduro commence \u00e0 agir contre l\u2019expression sur les r\u00e9seaux sociaux, en emprisonnant six personnes pour des tweets qui jettent un \u00e9clairage n\u00e9gatif sur le gouvernement. Malgr\u00e9 le danger et les obstacles \u00e0 la publication d\u2019opinions libres, l\u2019ind\u00e9pendance et la r\u00e9sistance existent toujours parmi de larges segments de la presse. La situation \u00e9conomique difficile a pouss\u00e9 de nombreux journalistes \u00e0 quitter le pays, laissant dans leur sillage les correspondants \u00e9trangers. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The government is unable to crack down on foreign journalists because of the repercussions it would have internationally. No new reporters are coming in, but those already there have been allowed to stay. Ultimately, the government aims to negate local press outlets and mute the foreign journalists with a war of attrition. Social media is a helpful alternative to traditional delivery mediums, but money, resources, and talent are necessary for the production of substantial, informative reporting. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quitter le Venezuela \u2013 Le co\u00fbt du nationalisme <\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn 2007, the Bolivarian government issued a law-decree nationalizing all remaining oil production sites under foreign control and mandating that all oil extraction in Venezuela be undertaken within the framework of joint ventures, in which the state oil company PDVSA retains the majority stake.\u00a0This move sparked a wave of lawsuits by foreign trans-nationals in international arbitration bodies demanding compensation for expropriated assets. In response, Venezuela withdrew from the ICSID in 2012, citing institutional bias in favor of transnational corporations on the part of the Washington-based body.\u00a0\u201c13<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where once Venezuela was home to many large multi-national firms, today only a handful remain. It\u2019s difficult to make a profit because labor costs and the prices of goods are predetermined. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les plus grandes entreprises r\u00e9sistent, comptant sur une conjoncture \u00e9conomique meilleure \u00e0 l'avenir, tandis que les petites entreprises n'ont pas le luxe d'attendre aussi longtemps. Les grandes compagnies p\u00e9troli\u00e8res s\u2019en prennent financi\u00e8rement au menton, mais le potentiel de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices futurs est trop important pour \u00eatre ignor\u00e9. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le CIRDI, le Centre international pour le r\u00e8glement des diff\u00e9rends relatifs aux investissements, a de nombreuses affaires en cours impliquant des all\u00e9gations selon lesquelles le gouvernement v\u00e9n\u00e9zu\u00e9lien aurait expropri\u00e9 des entreprises dans le cadre d'efforts de nationalisation. Exxon a r\u00e9cemment remport\u00e9 un proc\u00e8s $1.6B en 2014, et le pays devrait des milliards aux compagnies a\u00e9riennes qui restent impay\u00e9es. Dans l\u2019ensemble, le Venezuela est devenu un endroit difficile pour faire du commerce pour les int\u00e9r\u00eats p\u00e9troliers internationaux et les grandes entreprises en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral. Pour ceux qui sont partis, il est peu probable qu\u2019ils reviennent tant qu\u2019un nouveau gouvernement plus r\u00e9ceptif ne sera pas en place. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

L'importance du Venezuela pour la p\u00e9tro\u00e9conomie mondiale <\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Pendant un certain temps, le Venezuela de Hugo Chavez a brill\u00e9 comme un mod\u00e8le pour les pays du monde entier qui aspiraient \u00e0 obtenir une plus grande ind\u00e9pendance vis-\u00e0-vis des \u00c9tats-Unis et \u00e0 contr\u00f4ler leurs propres ressources.\u00a0 <\/span>He was seen as that rare individual with the courage to stand up to the U.S. in defiance, and as a central figurehead in a worldwide alliance of left-leaning, socialistic powers. After world oil prices plummeted, the bottom fell out of Chavez\u2019s plans and his mystique was weakened.\u00a0 <\/span>Dans son sillage, le successeur Nicol\u00e1s Maduro tient des discours enflamm\u00e9s, mais sans impact. Des programmes comme Petrocaribe, <\/i>qui fournissait du p\u00e9trole au Venezuela et aux pays des Cara\u00efbes, a perdu son soutien lorsque l\u2019argent a cess\u00e9 d\u2019affluer. Aujourd\u2019hui, rares sont les pays capables de d\u00e9fendre le Venezuela sur la sc\u00e8ne internationale. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

No doubt, Venezuela can still be a major provider of oil. They have the largest reserves in the world, but theirs is a viscous, hard-to-process type of petroleum product that is expensive to refine. With current prices at a nadir, Venezuela\u2019s role as an oil producer has diminished, and its position as a lion of socialism has been undermined, as well. Globally, they are still a top ten producer of oil and they are important in that regard. Presently, there is a glut of oil on the global market, but this will not always be\u00a0so. In the long-term, the world will need Venezuela\u2019s vast reserves to supply an unquenchable need for petroleum. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Julius Walker, strat\u00e8ge d'UBS, a r\u00e9sum\u00e9 la situation de cette fa\u00e7on. \u00ab Le Venezuela reste important pour le march\u00e9 p\u00e9trolier mondial. Toute interruption de production entra\u00eenerait une hausse importante des prix. Toute interruption de la production en raison de troubles politiques entra\u00eenerait presque certainement de fortes hausses des prix, et un d\u00e9ficit total de production mettrait gravement \u00e0 rude \u00e9preuve les march\u00e9s p\u00e9troliers mondiaux.<\/span>9<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le p\u00e9trole est-il la seule r\u00e9ponse ? <\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Au-del\u00e0 du p\u00e9trole, le Venezuela est bien dot\u00e9 en ressources naturelles abondantes ; minerai de fer, aluminium, or, diamants et gaz naturel. La diversification a \u00e9t\u00e9 tent\u00e9e dans le pass\u00e9, mais en fin de compte, le p\u00e9trole a domin\u00e9 le 20<\/span>\u00e8me<\/sup><\/span> Si\u00e8cle et au-del\u00e0. Jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, le p\u00e9trole \u00e9tait si bon march\u00e9 \u00e0 produire que la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de faire autre chose \u00e9tait pratiquement discutable. Pourtant, un \u00e9norme potentiel existe. Laissons au Venezuela d\u2019aujourd\u2019hui le soin de dresser des obstacles au progr\u00e8s, notamment les questions de capital et de droits de propri\u00e9t\u00e9 qui entravent les efforts de diversification. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le ministre v\u00e9n\u00e9zu\u00e9lien du Tr\u00e9sor, Julio Sosa Rodriguez, a bien r\u00e9sum\u00e9 la situation dans une r\u00e9cente interview \u00e0 Caracas lorsqu'il a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 : \u00ab Pour ma g\u00e9n\u00e9ration, ce sera la premi\u00e8re fois que nous verrons le p\u00e9trole tomber en dessous de la moiti\u00e9 du budget national. La chose la plus stupide de ces 20 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es a \u00e9t\u00e9 de ne pas diversifier l\u2019\u00e9conomie.\u00bb<\/span>10         <\/span><\/span>Il faudra peut-\u00eatre beaucoup d\u2019investissements \u00e9trangers pour investir et aider l\u2019\u00e9conomie v\u00e9n\u00e9zu\u00e9lienne, si et quand cette \u00e9conomie sera stabilis\u00e9e. Des opportunit\u00e9s existeront dans de nombreux secteurs si elles peuvent se concr\u00e9tiser et se concr\u00e9tiser. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Venezuela\u2019s Relationship with Other Latin American Governments <\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The left-wing governments of Ecuador, Cuba, Argentina, and Bolivia have historically had alliances with Venezuela. These affiliations are based more upon ideology than on copying Venezuela as an economic model. Latin American ties were especially strong when Chavez ruled and money and oil were flowing. However, relationships have deteriorated noticeably under the Maduro regime. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brazil pretends to have decent relations with Venezuela, but there is no real respect for Maduro that isn\u2019t based on fear of his power and of losing access to Venezuela\u2019s ready supply of oil. After all, Venezuela used to give money to their allies, but in light of its current economic woes, those days are gone. Some Caribbean nations such as Barbados rely on Venezuela for oil, so they are reticent to speak out against Maduro in any meaningful way. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the embattled leader is struggling to hold together his frayed alliances, human rights groups are leaning hard on Latin American countries to hold the Venezuelan government accountable for its many transgressions against its political prisoners. Columbia has raised its voice to the issue, but it shares a border with Venezuela and isn\u2019t too anxious to pick a fight. Cuba has long shared left-leaning proclivities with Venezuela, but their recent thawing of relations with the U.S. has placed Maduro in an awkward position given the vitriol and disdain he regularly aims at Washington and Obama.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Qu\u2019en est-il de la Russie et de la Chine ? <\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If Venezuela is a strong ally of Russia and China, the relationship is mostly superficial. Venezuela has offered the two world powers a place to sell their products on preferential terms. The loans they have given are typically based on contractual obligations for the selling of Russian and Chinese products. When times were better, sales were good and everyone was happy, but today the business is winding down.\u00a0 <\/span>Russia claims continued alliance, but they have trouble dealing with of their own. It is China that has continued to lend to Venezuela, even when getting paid back for these loans seems unlikely. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Selon The Economist, \u00ab le pr\u00e9sident Nicol\u00e1s Maduro a annonc\u00e9 un nouveau pr\u00eat de $5 milliards de la Chine dans son programme t\u00e9l\u00e9vis\u00e9 hebdomadaire, diffus\u00e9 le 1er septembre. Dans l'\u00e9mission de deux heures (\u00ab En contact avec Maduro \u00bb, \u00ab En contacto con Maduro \u00bb), il a bri\u00e8vement annonc\u00e9 que l'accord avait \u00e9t\u00e9 sign\u00e9, avant de visionner des images de soldats chinois en marche et un clip de lui-m\u00eame jouant de la batterie avec des dignitaires chinois. . \u2026 Puisque le pr\u00eat sera rembours\u00e9 en p\u00e9trole, il n'\u00e9tait pas n\u00e9cessaire qu'il soit ratifi\u00e9 par le parlement v\u00e9n\u00e9zu\u00e9lien (puisqu'il ne sera pas officiellement consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme une dette).\u00bb<\/span>11 <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s place at the bargaining table is solid and they are not giving the money away for free. The strings are inevitably tied to the provision of a steady supply of oil in the future. Like Russia, China is dealing with its own economic turndown. Venezuela is located far away from China and the cost of refining the plentiful but viscous oil supply will be very expensive. The Chinese have made similar deals in Africa, leveraging present-day loans for long-term provisions of much-needed oil. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alli\u00e9s et opposants internationaux<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Les alliances et amiti\u00e9s per\u00e7ues entre le Venezuela et d\u2019autres pays sont presque toujours bas\u00e9es sur le p\u00e9trole, l\u2019argent et une politique de gauche. Pour l\u2019Iran, la Russie, la Syrie et la Chine, toute association est de nature purement mon\u00e9taire. L'id\u00e9ologie n'est pas une consid\u00e9ration majeure. De plus, toute nation d\u00e9mocratique est presque assur\u00e9ment un opposant au gouvernement v\u00e9n\u00e9zu\u00e9lien. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cuba est un alli\u00e9 id\u00e9ologique de longue date du Venezuela. Cependant, le r\u00e9cent r\u00e9chauffement des relations avec les \u00c9tats-Unis a cr\u00e9\u00e9 des probl\u00e8mes pour le gouvernement Maduro. Le Venezuela et Cuba ont fait \u00e9quipe pendant de nombreuses ann\u00e9es, s\u2019insurgeant contre les m\u00e9faits de l\u2019Am\u00e9rique. Le virage \u00e0 180 degr\u00e9s de Cuba a non seulement d\u00e9concert\u00e9 Maduro, mais il remet \u00e9galement en question sa l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 m\u00eame. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brazil\u2019s friendship with Venezuela is of great importance to the Maduro government as Brazil is in good economic shape. Elsewhere, Algeria, Palestine, and the Assad regime in Syria have shown an alliance to the Venezuelan<\/span> government. Some believe that Maduro\u2019s regime has been somehow complicit in helping Iran to conceal its ongoing nuclear development program. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quant aux ennemis, il ne fait aucun doute que les \u00c9tats-Unis sont le num\u00e9ro un. Maduro a affirm\u00e9 avec insistance que les \u00c9tats-Unis avaient tent\u00e9 de l\u2019assassiner, impliquant m\u00eame le vice-pr\u00e9sident Joe Biden dans ces affirmations. Le pr\u00e9sident Obama, faisant de son mieux pour ne pas donner au Venezuela des raisons de qualifier les \u00c9tats-Unis d\u2019imp\u00e9rialistes, a tent\u00e9 de d\u00e9geler les relations avec le r\u00e9gime de Maduro. Sur d\u2019autres fronts, l\u2019Espagne peut \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme id\u00e9ologiquement oppos\u00e9e au Venezuela, et la Colombie a d\u00e9finitivement suscit\u00e9 la col\u00e8re de Maduro. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nouveau dialogue avec les \u00c9tats-Unis ?<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\u00c9tudes<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, toute n\u00e9gociation avec le gouvernement am\u00e9ricain est, au mieux, une proposition risqu\u00e9e. Apr\u00e8s tout, lui et son pr\u00e9d\u00e9cesseur, feu Hugo Chavez, ont pass\u00e9 de nombreuses ann\u00e9es \u00e0 d\u00e9nigrer et \u00e0 cracher du venin anticapitaliste sur leur voisin honni du nord. Cela \u00e9tant dit, les r\u00e9centes discussions entre les deux nations se poursuivent effectivement. Comme l\u2019a r\u00e9cemment rapport\u00e9 l\u2019agence de presse Reuters\u2026 <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00ab Les \u00c9tats-Unis et Venezuela<\/span><\/a> ont entam\u00e9 leur dialogue le plus approfondi depuis des ann\u00e9es pour tenter d'am\u00e9liorer leurs relations acrimonieuses, selon un haut responsable de l'administration am\u00e9ricaine. Cette diplomatie discr\u00e8te, dont l\u2019ampleur n\u2019a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 signal\u00e9e auparavant, est un signe que la d\u00e9tente am\u00e9ricaine avec Cuba communiste pourrait contribuer \u00e0 remodeler une autre relation troubl\u00e9e en Am\u00e9rique latine. Le responsable, qui a une connaissance directe des pourparlers de haut niveau, a averti que le processus n'en \u00e9tait qu'\u00e0 ses d\u00e9buts. Les efforts du gouvernement le plus ardemment anti-Washington d'Am\u00e9rique latine et principal fournisseur de p\u00e9trole des \u00c9tats-Unis pour am\u00e9liorer les relations interviennent alors que le pr\u00e9sident Nicolas Maduro se d\u00e9bat avec une \u00e9conomie d'\u00c9tat en d\u00e9clin, laiss\u00e9e encore plus isol\u00e9e par le r\u00e9chauffement des liens avec les \u00c9tats-Unis, son proche alli\u00e9 Cuba.\u00bb<\/span>14<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the U.S, having a failed state in Venezuela is not a good thing. It creates increased security issues and opens the door to escalation in drug trafficking activities. The DEA has been investigating high-ranking Venezuelan officials for believed involvement in drug-related criminality. To mollify the U.S., some arrests have been made in relation to the investigations. One possible scenario sees the U.S. providing financial aid to Venezuela, though some doubt this will happen. In the pursuit of U.S. dollars, it\u2019s reported that the Venezuelan Head of the Assemblage, Diosdado Cabello recently met in Haiti with U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Shannon. In the meantime, Maduro continues to vent on TV against the U.S., blaming it for most of Venezuela\u2019s ills. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

La catastrophe est-elle imminente ? <\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite loans from China to keep it economically solvent and ongoing relations with the U.S. portending possible relief for Venezuelans, day-to-day<\/span> life is still miserable for millions. Long lines of poor people stand in line for food and supplies. Constant shortages provide unending aggravation. Crime threatens the very lives of a vulnerable population. Many say that short of a quick and demonstrative intervention of some type, Venezuela may soon be heading off the cliff. This makes the coming elections even more important. With external debts mounting and oil prices remaining low month after month, conditions are perfect for a cataclysm of the highest order. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Selon Barclays, \u00ab le Venezuela souffre de la crise \u00e9conomique la plus profonde de son histoire, avec une production qui devrait se contracter de 9,1 % cette ann\u00e9e. La contraction \u00e9conomique atteindra probablement 16,5 pour cent entre 2014 et 2016, tandis que l\u2019inflation sur cette p\u00e9riode d\u00e9passera 1\u00a0000 pour cent.<\/span>15<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The middle-class continues to protest, but unless they are joined by the poor, creating numbers too big to be ignored, little will change. True, petrol bombs, thrown stones, unrest, and violence can lead to an awareness that might affect real change, but without organization and leadership, such protests stand little chance of uniting huge amounts of people and of being effective. With Venezuelan citizens so hungry and angry, it\u2019s not hard to see why Chavez-worship is on the wane. An epochal event might be necessary to usher in a new era for the nation and to reinvigorate its beleaguered markets. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c0 long terme\u2026<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Most experts agree that things will get worse in Venezuela before they get better. Even if oil prices rise, the best that might be expected is a few more years of \u201ckicking the can down the road.\u201d The country\u2019s debts are astronomical. There isn\u2019t enough food. Problems are myriad to the point that it may take decades for Venezuela to sift through the wreckage wrought by Chavez\u2019s experiment, and by the fickle<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

nature des march\u00e9s des combustibles fossiles. Il reste \u00e0 voir si la chute attendue du chavisme sera r\u00e9solue rapidement, ou s\u2019il y aura une lutte longue et douloureuse pour sortir de l\u2019obscurit\u00e9. Quelle que soit la r\u00e9solution, elle doit impliquer un mandat du peuple et non la volont\u00e9 de vieux oligarques. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will a moderate such as Capriles provide the bridge to unite right and left in Venezuela? Can Chinese loans stave off default? China may well be tiring of waiting for its<\/span> return on investment to pay dividends. On the upside, Venezuela is sitting on a sea of oil, and there is no doubt that eventually, the world will need it. Oil prices are bound to rise and when that happens, Venezuela will be well-positioned to reap the benefits. Investors, meanwhile, are in a wait-and-see mode. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

De LFPress.com\u00a0; \u00ab L'\u00e9conomie va continuer \u00e0 souffrir et il n'y a aucune volont\u00e9 politique de la part du gouvernement pour prendre des mesures fortes pour faire face \u00e0 la hausse rapide de l'inflation et \u00e0 la d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration de l'environnement budg\u00e9taire.  <\/span>En fait, le m\u00e9contentement public qui se manifeste actuellement rend Maduro encore moins susceptible de mettre en \u0153uvre des r\u00e9formes douloureuses qui pourraient conduire \u00e0 une revigoration des protestations. Cela signifie que nous assisterons \u00e0 d\u2019autres vagues de m\u00e9contentement social \u00e0 l\u2019avenir.\u00bb<\/span>16<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quelle voie \u00e0 suivre ? <\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As improbable as it sounds, many feel the best course of action for Venezuela to take regarding its future would be to form a transitional government with representation from all sides, in the interest of national solidarity. This would include the opposition, the Chavista government, and the military. Some feel that painful austerity measures presented by a unified front are needed in order to stabilize the economy. The IMF could provide emergency funding. The people will decide who they want to lead through fair elections monitored by the international community. The ultimate goal would be to achieve some type of peaceful democratic transition. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

D'autres rem\u00e8des ont \u00e9t\u00e9 sugg\u00e9r\u00e9s, notamment une d\u00e9valuation du taux de change actuel pour inciter les entreprises \u00e0 retourner au Venezuela. Du point de vue de l\u2019industrie p\u00e9troli\u00e8re et des investissements internationaux, le contr\u00f4le de l\u2019opposition serait une am\u00e9lioration car il existe une grande m\u00e9fiance \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de Maduro et de sa politique. \u00c0 l\u2019heure actuelle, il serait difficile pour le gouvernement Maduro de r\u00e9parer les barri\u00e8res, aussi d\u00e9cr\u00e9pites que soient devenues les \u00e9conomies. Cela \u00e9tant dit,  <\/span>malgr\u00e9 ses \u00e9checs, nombreux sont ceux qui soutiennent le chavisme et nourrissent l\u2019espoir de relancer la r\u00e9volution. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maduro still has four years left to rule, but it\u2019s hard to imagine him surviving that long as badly as things have been. Should the urban poor mobilize and show their extreme discontent in the streets, Maduro\u2019s tenure could be shortened. In an interesting article in the Huffington Post recently, this assessment was published \u2026 <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00ab Une solution viable serait de trouver un nouveau leader, potentiellement originaire des bidonvilles de Petare, San Agust\u00edn ou 23 de Enero ; qui sait s\u00e9duire les nombreux insatisfaits Chavistes<\/i> qui ne font pas confiance aux dirigeants actuels de l\u2019opposition. L\u2019\u00e9mergence d\u2019une telle figure pourrait potentiellement repr\u00e9senter un terrain d\u2019entente entre Chavistes<\/i> et l'opposition, ce qui pourrait bien marquer un tournant dans la crise politique au Venezuela.\u00bb<\/span>17<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ce que veulent vraiment les V\u00e9n\u00e9zu\u00e9liens <\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Most experts feel that the wants of the Venezuelan people are actually not so complex or impossible to satisfy. Like everyone, they wish for the basics; food, shelter, and clothing. They want to be able to eat and have a minimal amount of purchasing power. As one insider put it, \u201cthey want a peaceful nation with plenty to eat, drink, decent beaches, and they will be happy.\u201d Venezuelans also want to be heard, to have a voice, a vote, and honest representation. In addition, they insist on a decent education for their children. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans l\u2019\u00e9tat actuel des choses, la classe moyenne augmente la mise et s\u2019en va en l\u2019absence d\u2019opportunit\u00e9s de prosp\u00e9rer. Les pauvres ont en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 tr\u00e8s peu d\u2019espoir de voir un soulagement \u00e0 leurs mis\u00e8res actuelles. Malheureusement, le Venezuela est un pays polaris\u00e9. Les d\u00e9sirs et les souhaits de ceux qui soutiennent l\u2019opposition et les chavistes diff\u00e8rent consid\u00e9rablement. Beaucoup souhaitent passionn\u00e9ment voir la fin des politiques chavistes, tandis que les pauvres et les exclus souhaitent la poursuite des d\u00e9penses sociales et des politiques de gauche. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

De plus, les gens veulent se sentir en s\u00e9curit\u00e9 dans la rue et \u00e0 la maison. Ils ont peur parce que les crimes violents continuent de cro\u00eetre. De nombreuses personnes ont \u00e9galement faim et en ont assez de faire la queue pour obtenir de la nourriture et des fournitures. Leur col\u00e8re grandit. C\u2019est une m\u00e8che allum\u00e9e qui se rapproche de plus en plus d\u2019une explosion aux proportions cataclysmiques. La forme que cela pourrait prendre n\u2019est pas claire. Reste \u00e0 voir si cette explosion pourra \u00eatre d\u00e9samorc\u00e9e rapidement, avant qu'il ne soit trop tard. L\u2019avenir s\u2019annonce prometteur pour le Venezuela et son peuple. C'est le pr\u00e9sent <\/i>c\u2019est extr\u00eamement volatile et probl\u00e9matique. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n

Notre emplacement \u00e0 New York<\/h2>\n